Winter Tricks! This System Is Crazy!

Well, I have gone through the latest weather model data and I have to say that the weather models are not handling the Sunday / Monday system to well at this time. They are all over the place! However the system for later tonight into Saturday is looking good lol. So lets go ahead and start with that one first! ;)
You can see in this satellite radar image above taken at 11:07am EST this morning that the first system is really taking shape. This system is looking to fall as an all snow event. However it's not looking to bring us much in the way of snow accumulation. I'm currently looking at less then an inch of snow. But this is only the warm up to a much bigger and more tricky system.

Now everyone is saying that this system for Sunday into Monday is tricky however do you know why? Well, I'll let you know.

It is all coming down to the track of this low pressure. How does this effect snowfall amounts? Well, if the low pressure system tracks to far to the north then areas from Lafayette south may see a mixed precipitation and that would lower snowfall. As areas north of Lafayette, would be seeing some good size snow accumulations. However if this low tracks a little more south, then all of the viewing area would be tracking some heavy snowfall with bigger snow accumulation. Take a look at how one of the models has this system playing out below.
Now what your looking at above is what I like to use when forecasting snow and ice. This is called the 540 line. Some of you may already know about this. However for those who don't let me explain. The 540 line is kinda like a line that tells you what areas will see mixed precipitation and which ones will see all rain or all snow. Any precipitation to fall to the north of this line usually falls in the form of snow! While precipitation to fall south of this line usually falls as rain. And right around this line or should I say near by this line usually sees a mixed precipitation event.

And you can see above one model is showing this line setting up to give most of us a mixed precipitation event. However this is not by any means set in stone at this time! I have one model saying this will be an all snow event. While another is saying little snow and mostly a rain to mix event. The good news is I'm not seeing a major ice event for the viewing area at this time. The GFS models are showing this low pressure system setting up a bit north which would support this image above. However the European, weather models are showing it set up a bit more south which would support a snow event for our area. Now if we where to see this system move in as an all snow event we could be looking at a 4" to 6" inch range! However because the models are still having a hard time with the low pressure track I'm going to hold off on the snow amounts until we get a little closer! Things are just to wild at this time. Once we get a few more weather model runs under our belt then I will feel better about giving precipitation amounts! We still have around two days to really get a good grip on things!

So for now lets just focus on this first system with less then an inch of snowfall. This will move in late late tonight into early morning Saturday.

Stay tuned bloggers as I will have more on this developing system later!

Be sure to check back for the latest.....