Severe T-Storm Warning Canceled!

Because of this cell weakening as it moved across Montgomery, county the National weather service has canceled the severe thunderstorm warning. You can see the warning in this radar image taken at 12:05pm below.
This cell is now a little over half way through Montgomery county about to cross over into Boon, county and south Clinton, county. we are looking at rainfall falling at a rate of a quarter inch an hour. Still some breezy winds at times but no more hail is being picked up on radar! This cell is no longer looking like a threat to the WLFI viewing area!

Otherwise things are still looking good for our area! Few more rain / Thundershowers moving through Tippecanoe, and Carroll, counties but nothing severe! Still it looks like our weather models were right with a slight chance for storms starting after 8:00pm and a stray strong storm not ruled out!

Can't get much more close then that!

I'll check back again if needed.
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Severe thunderstorm warning currently in effect for Montgomery county, along with parts of Clinton, county. This cell is moving north east and is currently packing heavy rainfall falling at a rate of a half inch to one inch an hour! Also some Pea sized hail is also possible along with gusty winds near 60 mph at times!

Severe Thunderstorm warning in effect until 12:30am EDT.

Stay Tuned!

Looking Better!

Hey bloggers the newest data just came in a little bit ago from the Bufkit weather models and things are indeed looking better for the WLFI viewing area!

We are still in the slight risk for severe weather however the Total Totals Index is now showing Scattered to some moderate thunderstorms instead of Moderate to Severe thunderstorms! (Good news). Also the SWEAT models that had been showing numbers over 300 all day which indicates severe weather potential is now under 300 at only 291!! This is also good news!

And our Lifted Index that was slightly unstable at -2.5 is now becoming more stable at +0.3. More good news!

So we are looking at around a 60% to 80% chance at some thunderstorms starting sometime after 8:pm or 9:pm tonight. I know this is moving the timing back a little but this has been a tricky system... One we really had to stay on top of that's for sure! So we can expect some scattered thunderstorms with a small chance for a stray strong storm or two somewhere in the WLFI viewing area. Still this is much better news then we had earlier this morning! ;)

So stay tuned bloggers and I'll check back again if needed.....

Confusing Data?!?! Could Be Good News For Us If It's Right!!

What we need to do now is just continue to watch the current data and the radars like crazy! We started out with a 40% to 60% chance of seeing thunderstorms according to the K-Index models. Now they are showing between a 20% and 40% chance of seeing thunderstorms for the WLFI viewing area! However the Lifted Index has fallen to -2.5 which is slightly unstable. And also the SWEAT models earlier this morning was at 305 and have now gone up to 392 which is also indicating a better chance for severe thunderstorms!

So with this confusing data here is my thinking!

If we don't go any lower on Lifted Index then -2.whatever then we should be ok meaning that we won't see a huge ((outbreak)) of storms over our area! However with SWEAT, showing us a good chance at severe weather as well as the Total Totals Index showing Scattered Heavy thunderstorms then this is what I say.

(If we do) see any thunderstorms move through our area we have a good chance that we will see some severe thunderstorm warnings come along with them. But as for now the storms seem to be developing to our south and east which is what the models have been showing all day. This is where I have my "Zone cast" I posted in my last update which is good news for us!!)

For right now we have a 20% to 40% chance for thunderstorms to move through our area instead of that 40% to 60% chance we had earlier this morning! So this means we have a slight chance at thunderstorms but if we do see any there is a good chance they could be severe!

Still stay tuned! I'll check back again as needed!

Things are confusing at this point and time so don't let your guard down just yet! Still looking for rain starting later on this evening after 7:pm or 8:pm. Give or take.

Placement Of The Watch Means Everything!

Ok as we continue through out today we are becoming more and more unstable! As expected..... So currently we are looking at things such as Lifted Index being around -2.5 which is unstable enough to support some thunderstorms with Isolated severe. Also things like SWEAT, which is standing at 392 which anything at 300 or higher indicates severe thunderstorm potential. Our temperatures are on the rise as they had been standing at 81 degrees at 1:43pm and now stand at 83.2 degrees and rising!

We do have a Tornado watch put into effect by the national weather service for two of our counties. Those counties being Cass, and Clinton from now until 9:00pm EDT tonight. Now this watch is something we can take note of! The placement of it I mean! Remember in my last post I told you all that if we did see any tornadoes I would expect to see them on the northeast side of that yellow box I posted?!?! Well, that is just what the National weather service is expecting as well.

With the way the models are showing things meaning the CAPE, Helicity, and EHI, model values, it is looking like the biggest severe weather threat will be to our northeast and also some to our south! Take a look at my Zone Cast below.
Now this does not mean we won't see anything severe. ((I'm not ruling anything out)) However this looks to be the bulls eye as of now. And as we have seen from the National weather service they seem to agree with my thinking because of the placement of the tornado watch. (All inside the Zone cast)

Anyway it won't be long before we start to see things POP UP on the radars. So keep checking back for more updates! I will check back again as needed.

Main Storm Threats.....

Lightning As With Any Storm!

Gusty Winds To 30 - 35 MPH Some Could Be HIgh In Storms.

Small Pea Sized Hail. Larger Hail The More Northeast And Then South You Go.

Stay tuned!

Storm Threats.....

Good morning bloggers. Are you ready to track some wild weather? Well, lets do it anyway! :)

I have just gone through the latest data and things are not looking as bad as models made them look yesterday this at this time. Which is good news. However we are not out of the woods as we do still have some severe weather on the way! Still looking for it to start sometime around this evening. Models indicate that we are looking for a line of storms to move through the area giving way to some scattered thunderstorms with isolated severe! Now as for tornadoes they are still a threat however it's not a huge threat! Take a look at this current tornado outlook map I have put together below.
You can see we are in that 5% range however I'm still expecting that if we do see any tornadoes it would most likely be in that northeastern side of the yellow box. And possibly to our south. Still we will have to watch things very closely as always! Main storm threats include Lightning, as with any storm! Small hail is possible but with the higher CAPE values being to our south and east this is where the better chance at hail will set up. Some gusty winds in storms are also possible.
Here is you storm threat chance map above.

Heavy rainfall will also be something to watch as we do have some Flood watches in areas such as Benton, Newton, and Jasper, counties. Rainfall when all is said and done could easily be over and inch.

I will check back as needed through out the storms! Stay tuned and stay safe!