Update as of 6:09pm EST

I've been watching our current data closely over the past half hour, I'm not currently seeing our atmosphere terribly unstable at this time, Our TT index, K-index and LI, are not terribly unstable. Along with EHI and CAPE values. We do support Thunderstorms however I doubt we will be able to support Strong tornado producing thunderstorms at this time. Still watching closely!

Storm Update as of 5:51pm EST

That line of storms is still forming out in front of this cold front, You can see in this surface chart above. That warm air is pushing up into the state with all that cold air building to our west. Some of the storms in this line are strong / severe. Some high damaging winds have been reported to the NWS along with a possible tornado in western IL.

You can see the squall line in this closer radar image below.

The line is moving east north east. The red area is where the severe storms are currently located in this system. We will be cutting it close as this line moves through. I'm watching the radars closely for any change in track. Here is a look at my local radar below.

There are some severe thunderstorm warnings issued with this line as you can see above along with a few tornado warnings. There has been some radar indicated rotation with these cells. Our southern counties will have the highest risk of seeing some of these cells, Counties around Montgomery, southern fountain, and Clinton counties. Main threats would be Damaging winds, Hail Lightning, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Watching the storms closely!

Just went through some quick data looking at our current EHI, LI TT and CAPE values. Areas close to home are a little unstable as a small squall line of storms is starting to form along the cold front to our west right now. I still don't look for us to see a wide spread area of severe weather however a stray strong storm or two cannot be ruled out as the weather makes its way into the state.

If you look at this image you can see the main line of storms I've been taking about already forming from TX, / LA, and spreading into KY, and southern Indiana. However this second line that is forming is north of LA in MO, right now. Currently nothing severe however they will pop a bit more as they move closer. Still expecting the main severe weather to be in southern IL and IN, and then more south of there however with EHI values around 0.1 to 1.0 we cannot rule out a possible stray strong storm or two. That's it for now bloggers. I'll check back when I can. Currently still at work! ;)

Latest on the developing thunderstorms Thursday!

Alright bloggers, I have been going through the latest weather data this evening and the new forecast for tonight / tomorrow is in. Let's get started.

As we head into tonight we will continue to see clouds move into the area as rain showers move closer during the overnight hours. As we move closer to 4:am ish we will see those showers starting in the western parts of the state. You can see in this radar image below how the system is already starting to develop.

We will see this warm front pass over the area giving way to a high tomorrow (Thursday) of 61* degrees! Because of this quick warm up with so much cold air following we will see a squall line of storms develop out in from of the cold front.

Good news for us is that I don't see the squall line actually developing until the cold front is at least half way through Indiana. Which means any severe weather would be south and east of our area. Take a look at this map below.

The national weather service is still keeping parts on Indiana in that severe weather risk area however as you can see they too believe it will be farther south and east of our area. I added the red line to this map to help show you where I'm currently thinking the main severe weather will develop.

Right now our main threats look to be:

 High winds gusting to 40 maybe even 40 + mph.

Heavy rainfall at times.

Flash Flooding do to warm temperatures and fast melting snow.

Isolated thunderstorms.

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Cold air will blast back into the area late Thursday night into Wednesday as that cold front passes through the area. This is also when the winds will be at their highest! Let's break everything down now.

Tonight expect a low around 34* degrees with winds between 15 and 20 mph. cloudy skies as rain moves in later tonight into Thursday.

Thursday we can expect a high around 61* degrees with a low Thursday night falling fast to 28* degrees. Rainy conditions starting early Thursday morning and going off and on through out the day. Scattered thunderstorms possible with high winds and heavy rain at times. Currently looking for rainfall between .50" and .75" inches with isolated 1" inch in areas. Anything severe is looking to stay more south and east of the viewing area at this time. Main threats will be Heavy rainfall at times giving way to flash flooding, Isolated thunderstorms and high winds!

Winds will be between 15 and 20 mph gusting to 35 and 40 mph!

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That's the latest for now bloggers. Stay safe and I'll check back soon. I'll be at work all day tomorrow. If I find time I will try to post a quick update. Have a great night!

Warm weather but not without a price!

Warm air is moving into the area over the next few days bloggers. However it doesn't come without a price! We will also be looking at a big melt down across the state causing flooding in areas as well as rain in the forecast on Thursday along with high gusty winds that could gust to 35 and 40 mph at times! Let's break things down.

First off we will look at Wednesday's forecast. It's looking nice! I'm expecting a high around 43* degrees with mostly clear skies across the area. Light winds between 5 and 10 mph with a low that night around 34* degrees. Late that night however is when we will see some rain showers start to move into the area into Thursday.

Above you can see this weather model looking into early Thursday morning. You can see the rain showers starting to move into the area around 6:am / 7:am EST Thursday. Heavy rainfall at times along with a few thunderstorms are possible. The rain becomes more area wide as we continue through Thursday afternoon and evening.

Above is looking into late Thursday. You can see this system starting to make it's way off to the east of Indiana. You can see how the precipitation is forming into a squall line. This is where I expect stronger storms to try and develop. High winds form on the back side of this system where you see all those tightly packed isobars. Winds Thursday will be between 20 and 25 mph gusting to 35 and 40 mph by that evening / night. We are in a slight risk for severe weather according to the NWS, however as I said above I feel that any severe weather to develop is going to be related to that squall line which currently looks like it will form just east of us. Still we will keep a close eye on this as new information come in. Anytime you have cool air in place followed by a quick warm up and another strong cold front on the back side, its something to watch! Nothing is set in stone.

You can see even in this severe weather risk map out of the NWS they even have it mostly for southern states and more east of Indiana.

Once this system pushes through the state and that strong low pressure and cold front passes we will be in for another cold windy blast.

Just look how tightly packed together those isobars are! Very windy as we head into Thursday night / early Friday. Cold air on the back side of this system with highs on Friday in the upper 30s/ low 40s and falling. A low Friday night in the 20s again with highs over the weekend in the middle 30s.

Main threats from this system for us will be,

High Winds of 40mph.

Warm temperatures melting snow in edition to rainfall.

Flooding do to rain and warm temperatures melting several inches of snow.

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We will be watching the local rivers over the next few days for sure! Right now the national weather service is expecting the Wabash river to crest this weekend at 10.9ft, Minor flood stage is at 11ft. This is dangerous if you live by the rivers. Be ready to take action!

So warm weather but not without a price! Stay safe bloggers. I will try to check back again soon. Have a good night!

God Bless.