Big Tricky System!

Oak, there are many many weather stations already giving out some big numbers for the Friday snow storm. Well, my question is "Are they going to high to soon?" some have been calling for 6" to 8" while others say we could see near 12" inches when all is said and done! Is this really true? My other question is " With a system like this one why on earth would they give amounts like that when there are so many things that could change this system for more snow or less?" This system is a crazy one and needs to be watched closely that's for sure. I did see one station that was calling for snowfall between 2" and 4" inches with locally higher amounts possible. And at this time I would have to say this is the one closest to the right track! You should always start out small and then you can add on later! That is one thing Mike Prangley, told me and that has ALWAYS worked out great! Everything Mike, has told me comes into play everyday of my life. He is an amazing weatherman and is a big part of what I do! Now lets get to my thinking on this system. Take a look at this map below.
Just look at this monster of a system. I don't think I need to point out whats heading into our area soon! ;) The thing with this kind of system is all the moisture and where it is setting up. We usually see our bigger snows when the low pressure sets up to our south east. And just look at all this golf moisture it has to feed off of. This is a big storm! The thing we need to remember when forecasting a system like this one is they usually move another 100 to 200 miles north and west then what the models show. Well this is where things can get tricky! This system is already tracking a good ways east says the weather models. To raise our totals it is going to have to come more then 200 miles west! Right now I have us between 3" and 5" inches however something still wants me to keep 6" inches in the running at this time.
Ether way we will have to watch the huge snow drifts. With winds blowing between 20 and 25 mph maybe some gusts near 28 mph at times will cause this snow to blow all over the place. So 12" inch drifts are very possible in areas. So let me break down what we can expect and when we can expect it!

We will look for the winter precipitation to try and push in around the later evening / night of Thursday/ Otherwise early Friday morning before 7:00am EST. We may start out with a slight mix of freezing rain and snow however I would only look for around a tenth inch of freezing rain or LESS! The freezing rain is just not looking to great. Then we will quickly see it change over to an all snow event. I currently want to go for a 3" to 5" inch range however a 4" to 6" inch range is still in the running at this time! I'm still looking for the heavier snow amounts to set up to the south of I70. This is where most of the precipitation will be. Will we still see a good amount of snow? Yes, I think this is very likely that we can call for at least the 3" to 5" inch range. This will be our safety zone! And like I said above we can always add to this later if we need to. But I feel this is a great starting point! ;)

Now continue to stay cool! And get ready for a WHITE SUPERBOWL SUNDAY!!!!! GO COLTS!!!! I will be checking in often with more on this developing snow system.

And one last thing! We do have a winter storm watch in effect for the following counties below from late Thursday night through Saturday morning.....

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
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I'll check back soon..........