One Big Mess Of A System!

Well, first off we did see our expected snowfall last night into the early morning from system number one. We called for less then an inch of snow accumulation and that's just what the viewing area seen as they woke up! I have a few snowfall reports posted below for you to check out. Take a look...

Saturday Snowfall Reports...

JIWB, Lafayette, 0.5" Inches.

Kentland, 0.5" Inches.

Attica, 0.5" Inches.

Indianapolis, 0.5" Inches.

Otterbein, 0.4" Inches.

Remington, 0.2" Inches.

You can see most of us came in with right around that half inch mark. When I went out to check my gauge I also noticed something different! What's that? Well, it was much more mild then it has been all week. If you got a chance to get out yesterday then you know what I'm talking about! Yesterday we hit a high of 41 degrees in Lafayette. I was out in just a light jacket. And it was nice I have to say! Well, today when I walked out it was around 36 degrees and felt nice and warm. Kinda like a warm snow lol. Well, it's 38 degrees now and still expected to get a little warmer by this afternoon. This is another reason heavy snowfall is looking less likely Sunday into Monday.

The models are finally starting to agree this morning for the first time this week. This is why we take our time while forecasting and don't jump to amounts. You all remember me talking about the low pressure track yesterday and early this morning. Well, take a look at the latest Low track I have below.Even the GFS model is agreeing that this is the best low track for this system. With the low moving so far to the north this is really going to keep the heavy snowfall out of our area. The places to see the heavy snow will be well to our north west in northern IL, Which means lots of wet weather starting later Sunday into Monday. You can see how this low tracking more to the north effects the 540 line as well. Take a look below.The lines above are all 540 lines. This map is showing where the lines are expected to be at different times. The Red line is where the 540 will set up for the most time. This is looking at 1:pm Sunday. The Pink line is how far north it is expected to drift once the low really starts to move into the area. This is looking at 7:am Monday. And then the last line, (The blue line) is how far south it will drop after the low starts to move out of the area by 7:pm Monday night.

So what does this really mean for this system? Well, I think we look for Mixed precipitation late Sunday into Monday. Right now I'm not seeing a lot in the way of Ice accumulation! Which is good news for everyone! This is looking more like a wet mix of rain and snow more then anything! We could see a little freezing rain at times as that cannot be ruled out! But I'm not seeing it adding up to much at this time. Here's your detailed forecast below.

Sunday we will see cloudy skies to start things as the system continues to move closer and closer to the area. We will watch the system try and move in that afternoon to evening. A rain snow mix will develop with the chance at some freezing rain at times however not accumulating to much. New precipitation expected between a quarter and a half inch. Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. With lows in the upper 20s. Winds between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday we will continue to see a rainy snowy mix over the area. Precipitation could be heavy at times. New precipitation expected between a half inch and three quarters of an inch possible. Highs look to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. With lows in the upper 20s to low 30s possible. Winds between 10 and 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph also possible.

Just a BIG mess is the forecast :) This is why it is so hard to give a specific rain amount or snow amount. Because just a slight shift of this low can give or take in rain or snow. So this is why we call it in expected "precipitation" amounts.

This is how things look at this time. I will check back as needed with any changes!

And wow can you believe that this is my 700th post to you guys and girls? WOW Thank you for making this blog so great! ;) You bloggers make this blog what it is!