Here's the system on radar we are tracking! Radar image taken at 4:53pm EST.....
Okay, I want to start by telling you all a little bit about this system! As you already know SOOOOO Much has changed over the past few days. From 5+ inches to maybe an inch. To 1" to 3" inches and now to whatever I have forecasted! This has been a crazy event and the models have been having a tricky time. Things are slowly starting to become more clear however nothing that I'm about to tell you is set in stone! Not with this system anyhow. No one has hit a snow forecast on the nose so far this year. It's just been that kind of season up to this point. Models have been underestimating the past few snowfall's by around an inch or two which doesn't make things any easier! Usually I feel that Alberta clipper systems are pretty easy to forecast however this year has been different. And this system we are currently tracking is no exception. I have been scratching my head so much with this one I wouldn't be surprised to have lost some hair over the past few days. lol. So I'm going to go ahead and post a snow - cast map now and if needed I will do one more update tonight after I get back from spending some time with my sister. So enough of this, Lets get to it! ;)
Above is my current thinking on this clipper system snowfall amounts for Christmas Eve into early Christmas morning. I have checked around after making my forecast and no one has the same forecast as another. Some are calling for 1" to 3". Others are calling for an inch and a half. And others are calling for 1" to 4" inches. However after going through the latest data I feel that a wide area of 2" to 4" inches is likely however I don't want to rule out a few isolated areas picking up 3" to 5" inches possible! right now the MOS models are expecting 2" to 4" inches. As well as some of the GFS models. Now if these models are right then GREAT! However the MOS models have been underestimating the past snowfall amounts by around an inch or so. That's why I feel we need to keep the isolated 3" to 5" inches in the WLFI viewing area possible!
Right now I'm expecting to see this snow start in somewhere between 10:am and 12:pm EST. somewhere around that time! We may see a few scattered light snow flurries tonight however the main event will start in later on Christmas Eve Day. This is how things are looking right now! But remember the forecast changed in a major way just a few days ago. Within a few short hours! So this is why I will have another post tonight when I get back from spending time with my sister. Should be sometime around 10:pm or so! Just trust me that I will have another post coming your way! ;) Now here's your quick cast below.
Quick Cast..........
Christmas Eve we will look for mostly cloudy skies to start things off in the morning hours. We will look for the snow to move into the area sometime between 10:am and 12:pm EST. Snow will go through out the day into early Christmas morning. Highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s around 33* degrees. Lows that night will be around 23* degrees. Winds light between 3 and 5 mph.
Christmas Day we will look for scattered light snow flurries off and on through out much of the day. Expecting less then a half inch of snowfall. Highs will be in the upper 20s and falling through out the day. Lows that night will be around 16* degrees. Winds will be between 3 and 5 mph.
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Be sure to check back later on tonight for one more look at this event before making our FINAL CALL!
See you then!
Thanks for the update. Any chance the storm will move north for more snow or is this track solid as it stands?
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping us updated Justin