Sunday, March 2, 2014

A close look at the weather models.

**Update** As of 1:53am EST.

Reports coming in from northern IL, snowfall already on the ground anywhere from 2" to 4" inches up around Chicago. Also snowfall report from Elkhart, IN of 1" to 2" inches.

The snow is making it's way across the viewing area, About a half inch of snow on the ground in the Lafayette, area currently.  Here's a look at the heavier bands showing up on my personal radar. The snow has to be pretty heavy to show up on this radar. Take a look at the darker blues and greens popping up! (And so it begins) ;)
I'm fighting a nasty sinus cold bloggers so I'm gonna leave you with this update and head off to get some sleep. Please be careful on the roads if you have to go out and stay safe! There is a thin layer of ice under this snow! Take care.

God Bless!
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As you can see above the snow is slowly starting to make its way into the viewing area. It has moved in much slower then first thought. We have had a few reports of some freezing rain however nothing much across the area. Still roads are SLICK and will continue to become even more slick as the night goes on! You can see those few areas of pink in the radar image above.

I want to use this post to update you on the coming storm as well as show you all the weather models and what kind of data they are putting out. Lets get started.
Above is the Bufkit models that has been very consistent over the past few days calling for around 4" inches of snowfall from this storm.

Next is the MOS model.
The MOS model has been up and down a few times but over all fairly consistent calling for 2 to 4 / a possible 4" to 6" inches. Right now in this image above we're looking at a trace to 2" inches with another 2" to 4" inches on top of that. So a range of 4" to 6" inches.

And last but not least a look at the NAM model for snowfall.
This NAM model is showing a break down of snowfall amounts across the state. With Lafayette and much of the viewing area in that 4" to 6" inch range. Just north and west of Jasper county and Remington, IN in a bit more with 6" to 8" inches. And just south of the viewing area south of Montgomery county picking up 2" to 4" inches.

We have around a 40% to 50% chance of seeing 6" inches of snow across much of the area. Take a look at this map below.
So how much did I change the expected snowfall totals based on this newest data? Not much! I kept us in that 4" to 6" inch range however I extended the range more north then it was in my last post.
Wide area of 4" to 6" inches, I won't totally rule out the chance for locally higher amounts of 7" inches in areas. 3" to 5" inches south of Montgomery, county and sleet and freezing rain around Indianapolis and south. So not much change, I just wanted to show you all the newest data and show you what it is we're dealing with lol. Have a great night and stay safe! And as always, Don't forget to follow us on FACEBOOK!

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