Sunday, March 24, 2013

The Latest!

Above is a look at the radar as of 12:35pm EDT. You can see the snow inching closer as the dry air starts to move out of our area. New models are in and I have changed the snowfall amounts ever so slightly. Just a few minor last minute tweaks to the forecast before I head to work.
 
I finally got the bufkit data to come up. It usually does a good job when it come to forecasting snow. Take a look at the data below.
bufkit is good with snowfall and timing. Right now I'm looking for the snow to reach the Lafayette, area sometime around 5:pm give or take a little. The heaviest snowfall will be from 7:pm to around 1:am to 2:am Monday morning. Again this will be a very wet and heavy snow as temperatures are near the freezing mark currently at 30* degrees. Winds are still expected to blow between 20 and 25 mph with a few gusts to 35 mph possible.
 
Here is what things looked like in Troy, IL earlier this afternoon around 12:50pm.
This image was taken higher up so you can really see the almost whiteout conditions.
 
I didn't feel the need to change the snowfall totals very much for our area. I did however dial it in a bit to make a tighter range as we head closer to this snowy event. Take a look.
I still like the Lafayette, area in that 4" to 6" inch range with isolated 7" inches possible. Areas around Montgomery, county have a better chance of the higher 7" inches. The closer to Indianapolis, you go the higher the totals at this time. I did up the snowfall for the Indianapolis, area to a 4" to 8" inch range with isolated 9" inches possible. I'm keeping the 3" to 5" inch range for areas more north of Tippecanoe, county. I would not completely rule out a few areas up around Monticello to see 6" inches here and there however the 3" to 5" seems pretty solid as of now.
 
I will be at work til 10pm. I will try to have some snowfall totals on JIWB after work sometime. This is going to be a pain to drive home in tonight. Please take pictures and share as well as your current snowfall! Share here or on the JIWB facebook page. Here is one last look at the current Winter storm warning below. Stay safe. I'll check back soon.

 A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY.
 
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR

* TIMING: LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND TONIGHT...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
  LIGHTEN MONDAY MORNING... IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING...CAUSING SOME BLOWING OF SNOW. THESE WINDS
  COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW ON TREES AND OTHER ELEVATED
  SURFACES MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

First Round Done, Heavy Snow On The Way!

Well the first round of snow is making its way to our east at this time. Here's how much we've picked up so far.
 
Lafayette, 1.0" inches.
 
Indianapolis, 0.6" inches.
 
Attica, 0.5" Inches.
 
The more north of Lafayette, you go the less the snowfall. Only around a Tenth of an inch reported in parts of Jasper county at this time. However the heavy snow is still to come!
Above you see that first round moving to our east. We will see that small brief break in the snow as we talked about last night. Followed by the heavier snow when will start in later on this late afternoon into tonight.
 
Right now we are pulling in that brief area of dry air which is why we're seeing this break in the snow. You can see it perfect in this moisture satellite image below.
And just take a look at all that moisture just to our west wrapped up inside that second batch of snow heading our way! Right now I still feel my expected snow-cast from my last post holds true. Take a look at this precipitation model below.
Keeping that heavy band right between Lafayette and Indianapolis over the next few hours. I still believe that the winds will pose a threat with this heavy wet packing snow as we head into tonight. I'm expecting winds between 20 and 25 mph gusting between 30 and 35 mph at times. Weak limbs could snap and some could even lose power.
 
I will try to have another quick update on here before I head into work at 2:pm. Have a great day bloggers and stay tuned!
The first round is moving to our east as we speak. The second round is on its way. Breaking down timing and amounts coming soon.

Heavy Spring Snow Update!

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO
NOON EDT MONDAY...
 
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS
847 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013
 
Here is a look at the radar as of 11:53pm EDT. You can see the system moving closer with every hour.
We will have two rounds with this system. The first round will start Sunday morning with snow showers across the area however nothing terribly heavy. We may see a small break as some drier air tries to move into the area. All this just before that second round pushes through bringing the heavier snow along with it as we head into Sunday afternoon and into early early Monday. This is where we will see the snow really start to accumulate.
 
I did lower my expected snowfall totals just a little bit. Take a look.
Nothing major. Only by an inch or so. I still think we could pick up between 3" and 6" inches with isolated 7" inches in spots very possible. However the heavier snow will stay closer to the Indianapolis area where as much as 8" inches is possible. The wind with this heavy wet snow will be an issue! This snow gets heavy on trees and as we saw in our last big snow, it could very well snap weak limbs! I will continue to watch this closely and give you another update tomorrow before I head into work. Have a great night bloggers.

Saturday, March 23, 2013