Friday, May 14, 2010

Severe T-Storm Warning Canceled!

Because of this cell weakening as it moved across Montgomery, county the National weather service has canceled the severe thunderstorm warning. You can see the warning in this radar image taken at 12:05pm below.
This cell is now a little over half way through Montgomery county about to cross over into Boon, county and south Clinton, county. we are looking at rainfall falling at a rate of a quarter inch an hour. Still some breezy winds at times but no more hail is being picked up on radar! This cell is no longer looking like a threat to the WLFI viewing area!

Otherwise things are still looking good for our area! Few more rain / Thundershowers moving through Tippecanoe, and Carroll, counties but nothing severe! Still it looks like our weather models were right with a slight chance for storms starting after 8:00pm and a stray strong storm not ruled out!

Can't get much more close then that!

I'll check back again if needed.

Severe thunderstorm warning currently in effect for Montgomery county, along with parts of Clinton, county. This cell is moving north east and is currently packing heavy rainfall falling at a rate of a half inch to one inch an hour! Also some Pea sized hail is also possible along with gusty winds near 60 mph at times!

Severe Thunderstorm warning in effect until 12:30am EDT.

Stay Tuned!

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Looking Better!

Hey bloggers the newest data just came in a little bit ago from the Bufkit weather models and things are indeed looking better for the WLFI viewing area!

We are still in the slight risk for severe weather however the Total Totals Index is now showing Scattered to some moderate thunderstorms instead of Moderate to Severe thunderstorms! (Good news). Also the SWEAT models that had been showing numbers over 300 all day which indicates severe weather potential is now under 300 at only 291!! This is also good news!

And our Lifted Index that was slightly unstable at -2.5 is now becoming more stable at +0.3. More good news!

So we are looking at around a 60% to 80% chance at some thunderstorms starting sometime after 8:pm or 9:pm tonight. I know this is moving the timing back a little but this has been a tricky system... One we really had to stay on top of that's for sure! So we can expect some scattered thunderstorms with a small chance for a stray strong storm or two somewhere in the WLFI viewing area. Still this is much better news then we had earlier this morning! ;)

So stay tuned bloggers and I'll check back again if needed.....

Confusing Data?!?! Could Be Good News For Us If It's Right!!

What we need to do now is just continue to watch the current data and the radars like crazy! We started out with a 40% to 60% chance of seeing thunderstorms according to the K-Index models. Now they are showing between a 20% and 40% chance of seeing thunderstorms for the WLFI viewing area! However the Lifted Index has fallen to -2.5 which is slightly unstable. And also the SWEAT models earlier this morning was at 305 and have now gone up to 392 which is also indicating a better chance for severe thunderstorms!

So with this confusing data here is my thinking!

If we don't go any lower on Lifted Index then -2.whatever then we should be ok meaning that we won't see a huge ((outbreak)) of storms over our area! However with SWEAT, showing us a good chance at severe weather as well as the Total Totals Index showing Scattered Heavy thunderstorms then this is what I say.

(If we do) see any thunderstorms move through our area we have a good chance that we will see some severe thunderstorm warnings come along with them. But as for now the storms seem to be developing to our south and east which is what the models have been showing all day. This is where I have my "Zone cast" I posted in my last update which is good news for us!!)

For right now we have a 20% to 40% chance for thunderstorms to move through our area instead of that 40% to 60% chance we had earlier this morning! So this means we have a slight chance at thunderstorms but if we do see any there is a good chance they could be severe!

Still stay tuned! I'll check back again as needed!

Things are confusing at this point and time so don't let your guard down just yet! Still looking for rain starting later on this evening after 7:pm or 8:pm. Give or take.

Placement Of The Watch Means Everything!

Ok as we continue through out today we are becoming more and more unstable! As expected..... So currently we are looking at things such as Lifted Index being around -2.5 which is unstable enough to support some thunderstorms with Isolated severe. Also things like SWEAT, which is standing at 392 which anything at 300 or higher indicates severe thunderstorm potential. Our temperatures are on the rise as they had been standing at 81 degrees at 1:43pm and now stand at 83.2 degrees and rising!

We do have a Tornado watch put into effect by the national weather service for two of our counties. Those counties being Cass, and Clinton from now until 9:00pm EDT tonight. Now this watch is something we can take note of! The placement of it I mean! Remember in my last post I told you all that if we did see any tornadoes I would expect to see them on the northeast side of that yellow box I posted?!?! Well, that is just what the National weather service is expecting as well.

With the way the models are showing things meaning the CAPE, Helicity, and EHI, model values, it is looking like the biggest severe weather threat will be to our northeast and also some to our south! Take a look at my Zone Cast below.
Now this does not mean we won't see anything severe. ((I'm not ruling anything out)) However this looks to be the bulls eye as of now. And as we have seen from the National weather service they seem to agree with my thinking because of the placement of the tornado watch. (All inside the Zone cast)

Anyway it won't be long before we start to see things POP UP on the radars. So keep checking back for more updates! I will check back again as needed.

Main Storm Threats.....

Lightning As With Any Storm!

Gusty Winds To 30 - 35 MPH Some Could Be HIgh In Storms.

Small Pea Sized Hail. Larger Hail The More Northeast And Then South You Go.

Stay tuned!

Storm Threats.....

Good morning bloggers. Are you ready to track some wild weather? Well, lets do it anyway! :)

I have just gone through the latest data and things are not looking as bad as models made them look yesterday this at this time. Which is good news. However we are not out of the woods as we do still have some severe weather on the way! Still looking for it to start sometime around this evening. Models indicate that we are looking for a line of storms to move through the area giving way to some scattered thunderstorms with isolated severe! Now as for tornadoes they are still a threat however it's not a huge threat! Take a look at this current tornado outlook map I have put together below.
You can see we are in that 5% range however I'm still expecting that if we do see any tornadoes it would most likely be in that northeastern side of the yellow box. And possibly to our south. Still we will have to watch things very closely as always! Main storm threats include Lightning, as with any storm! Small hail is possible but with the higher CAPE values being to our south and east this is where the better chance at hail will set up. Some gusty winds in storms are also possible.
Here is you storm threat chance map above.

Heavy rainfall will also be something to watch as we do have some Flood watches in areas such as Benton, Newton, and Jasper, counties. Rainfall when all is said and done could easily be over and inch.

I will check back as needed through out the storms! Stay tuned and stay safe!

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

A "Busy" Storm Tracking Day Is Upon Us... Ugh..

That's right you can see we have yet another chance at some severe weather... I know no one like to hear Severe weather is in the forecast but all we can do is be storm ready and track this system together! We are going to see a warm front move through the area by tonight making highs tomorrow hit in the low 80s! This will make things rather unstable by the time the cold front starts to move through tomorrow late afternoon / early evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will form along this cold front forming a strong squall line of storms! This will have to be watched very closely. We are already in a slight risk for severe storms. Now this could change a little by tomorrow but for now this is how things look. I will be back here tomorrow the best I can for in storm updates. There will be a lot of storm chasers out tomorrow here in the Midwest that's for sure. As for me I will just be another chair chaser this time around! ;) lol.

Stay tuned bloggers. More updates to come tomorrow!

Friday, May 7, 2010

Cool 50s Return After This Cold Front Continues To Make It's Way Across The WLFI Viewing Area!!

As you may already know we are pretty much in the clear! Like I said in my last post we was in the developing mode of this line thank goodness. And it did develop and become more severe the more east it went! You can see in this radar image below how we started out.
You can see line number one just to the south of Tippecanoe county in Montgomery county. This was one of the main lines we was watching closely to make sure that if it did become stronger over our area we would be ready for it! And then if you look just to the north west of the first line you will see line number two. This was the line we watched for a while to see if it was going to stretch more south and become a potential dangerous line for our area. Good news is it didn't!! However line number one kinda took most of the energy and became one big line the more east it went. Take a look below.
As the line grew bigger it also became stronger. But not just in Indiana! You can see some of the watch and warning boxes that popped up well to our north east just outside of the radar scan zone. We are looking at severe thunderstorm warnings and also some tornado warnings in that area! As for Indiana we even seen a few severe thunderstorm warnings pop up to our east. Take a look below.

So really this storm kinda worked out in our favor as I have said before in my last post. The more east it went the stronger it got! Lets just pray that everyone stayed safe and sound! God bless.

Now as for today we will look for mostly cloudy skies with the slight chance for a few stray scattered light hit and miss showers across the area. However mainly in the northern WLFI viewing area. Also as this cold front continues to move across the area we will also look for cooler temperatures today thank goodness. I don't know about you all but these 80s feel like 100 degrees to me lol :) But hey I'll take it! Nice sunny warm weather, And it will be pool time soon! Once we get some steady 80s back in the forecast. Anyway today we will look for highs in the middle 50s followed by 60s and 70s through out much of next week.....

I'll check back again soon. Stay safe bloggers! And have another GREAT day! ;)

Developing Update On The Developing Line!

Hey bloggers. well, as you already know we do have a tornado watch in effect for almost the whole WLFI viewing area from now until 10:00pm CDT tonight. The only counties currently not in this watch are Benton, Newton, and Jasper. However for now after going through the current data our tornado threat is around a 2% chance which is not to bad. However it is still a chance so we will as always be watching things carefully this evening!

As you can see in this radar image below we are watching this line start to develop to our west. Rain will start to fall at anytime now! The good news for now is none of this line is severe that is about to move through our area. However this will soon change as the more east it moves the stronger it will get. This is why I'm thinking eastern Indiana will be in for a ruff night tonight. We currently stand in the developing stage of this line. Which could work out in our favor! But we still have more rain to the west of this line moving through now so we will continue to keep watch on that as well. So for now here are our storm threats below.
Radar Image Taken At 4:22pm...

Storm Threats.....

Tornadoes... currently around a 2% chance with a 10% chance the more east you go outside of the WLFI viewing area.

Hail... Around a 15% chance or less and again high around a 30% chance the more east you go outside of the WLFI viewing area.

Wind... Around a 15% chance or less with a high chance of 45% the more east you go outside of the WLFI viewing area.

We are in a Slight risk for severe. Our current storm chance is around a 20% to 40% chance. Moderate risk sets up again more to the North Eastern parts of Indiana.

So this is the update for now bloggers. I will check back as needed.....

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Update... Things Are Looking Ok With "NO Warned Cells" At This Time!!

0> Ok you can see in this radar image about taken at 1:20am that this line is getting closer. However I do have some good news! The National weather service has not felt the need to issue any severe thunderstorm warnings with any of these storms to our southwest at this time! This is a good sign for us! Also I have been watching the current data like crazy and we are currently sitting steady with the Lifted Index. AT this time it has not fallen any lower then -0.7. Also some good news is our current EHI values are only at 0.11 which is good, Usually for storms to support strong / severe thunderstorms the EHI needs to be around 1.0 to 2.0 and closer to 3.0 and 4.0 to support the development of tornadoes! But this goes together with things like CAPE and Helicity for the location of the possible development. Which our current CAPE stands at around 1,500J/kg which is not bad. Also Helicity is only around 111 which usually needs to be around 400 and 500 to give the spin needed to support tornadoes. Which is why I went with the netter change for tornadoes to stay to our south west in my earlier post

So for now things are looking ok. But we are not by any means out of the woods yet! The storms haven't even started yet. We will still have scattered to moderate thunderstorms across the area. But this is good news that we have yet to see any warned cells!! Also by watching the radars closely things seem to be steady / weakening as they move closer to the WLFI viewing area.. Stay tuned bloggers. And I'll check back as needed.....

Becoming Unstable! Stay Tuned!!

Another update will be posted soon! Stay Tuned!!

As the models expected our Lifted index is starting to fall. It was at +2.7 around an hour ago and has now dropped to -0.7 which is starting to become unstable. With this said we now also have the models known as SWEAT showing values of 317, Now what this means is, Anything over 300 on the SWEAT model means the storms have a good chance of becoming severe!

We do still have the Tornado watch in effect for parts of the WLFI viewing area until 5:00am. Tornado Watch details on last post!

So we will just have to stay tuned to the data and radars as this line moves into the area. I will continue to be here watching and keeping you posted! Stay tuned.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Lots Of Strong Storms To Watch Tonight!

Ok we are watching the next line of storms about to effect the WLFI viewing area later tonight very closely! These storms have the ability to be strong at time as they make their way across the WLFI viewing area. Now right now I'm looking for them to start in sometime closer / around 1:00am EST this morning. Pretty much close to the time the storms started last night.

Now after going through our current data we are looking at current Lifted Index around +2.7 which is pretty stable for now. However things like Total total index, and K-index, is showing a good chance of 60% or higher for some scattered to moderate thunderstorms to effect the area later on tonight. So even though we are in a slight risk for severe weather unlike last night I'm still kinda calling for the same thing. Scattered to moderate thunderstorms however a few stray strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out! Take a look at this radar image taken at 11:00pm EST below.

We have three lines of storms however I have marked the one that we will be tracking closely over the next few hours. This line is still looking pretty fired up as I type. However if we continue to stay with Lifted index of +2 and higher then we should start to see these weaken a bit as they get closer. However some models are pointing to our Lifted index dropping between -2.90 and -4.50 as the night continues. This is why we have to watch this system very closely! So for now let me go ahead and post what some of our biggest storm threats will be tonight.....

Storm Threats!

Wind..... Winds could gust between 30 and 35 mph. Wind threat is between 15% and 30% chance.

Lightning..... Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm. Stay away from windows.

Hail..... Hail is not looking like a big threat at this time. Currently only around a 15% chance.

Tornadoes..... Tornadoes are a threat with storms such as what is going on to the south of us as I type. However I'm currently looking for the biggest threat to stay to our south and west tonight. We currently look at around a 5% chance.

Heavy Rainfall..... Heavy rainfall is also something to watch. We could pick up yet another half inch to three quarters of an inch before all is said and done on top of what we already have! With locally higher amounts in areas possible.

So for now I will continue to watch this line of storms very closely and if anything is to change I will be sure to let you know as soon as I can!

Also the National weather service has gone ahead and put a few tornado watches into effect for parts of the WLFI viewing area. Here are the Indiana counties under this watch below.....




Again ..... We can expect scattered to moderate thunderstorms through out tonight into early Sunday with a few stray strong storms not out of the question! So remember to stay tuned and stay safe!