Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Winter storm warnings and Blizzard warnings continue til 7:pm EST this evening.

blizzard warnings along with winter storm warnings are still in effect across the state. visibility has been reduced with the snow and blowing snow. Road crews are having a hard time keeping up with the accumulation. roads are very snowy and slick at this time.

Take a look at this picture of the roads from the Lafayette, IN area below.
Everyone needs to remember the saying today, "Ice and snow, take it SLOW". With winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings still in effect its best to stay off the roads at this time if you can.

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 7:pm EST this evening for the following,
winter storm warnings remains in effect
until 7:pm EST for the following.

You can see already how much the visibility was reduced earlier this afternoon in the Lafayette, IN area. As those heavy snow bands pushed through the area along with the wind things started to get slick and dangerous.

Here are a few more pictures from Lafayette, earlier this afternoon.

I'll be back with snowfall totals very soon.

Here's a look at the current radar. snow showers will continue to linger in the area through this afternoon / evening before pushing off to our northeast. Radar image taken at 1:57pm EST.

2" inches of snow in Lafayette, IN. The after Christmas snow!

Here's how things look this mornings in the Lafayette, IN area as many woke up. Lafayette, coming in with currently 2" inches of snowfall with more on the way. Here's a quick current snow count.
Monroe, IN currently at 7.0" inches.
Bloomington, IN with 8.5" inches.
South Bend, IN with 1.0" inches.
and Lafayette, IN with 2.0" inches.

Here is a look at our local radar, you can see that next heavy band of snow moving west to east as part of that wrap around snow. We could still pick up another 1" to 3" inches of snowfall before this system heads out. Send me your weather pictures bloggers. Stay warm and stay safe! I hope you ll had a very Merry Christmas! :)
More posts and pictures to come. Stay tuned with JIWB.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Merry Christmas From JIWB!

I want to wish you all a very merry Christmas, I hope you all have a wonderful day with friends and family.
We do have a big winter storm developing as soon as tonight into tomorrow. Snow accumulations well over 3" inches or more. Stay safe, Take pictures, And have a wonderful time!
Share on JIWB facebook page. God Bless!

Friday, December 21, 2012

Invisible Force Field Over Lafayette, Indiana?

It's almost like there is an invisible force field around Lafayette and the rest of Central Indiana. It seems every time we have some strong weather heading our way it magically breaks up right at the last second and goes around our whole area lol. This system started to pull in some dry air around central Indiana which allowed for the heaviest of snowfall to stay in the northern half and then southern half of the state. Leaving the rest of us in that half inch of snow range. Take a look.
The expected 1" to 2" inches fell in much of the north with very little snow where we figured at least an inch in the Lafayette area. Followed by 3" inches in areas of Indianapolis! They pulled in a lot of our moist air which allowed for some heavy snow bands to form giving them around an inch more snowfall then first expected.
Most of us can call this our first snow of the season, however Lafayette, and around cities cannot. With only a half inch of snow we still have to get that solid inch!!

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Latest On Our First Snow Of The Season! Winter Storm Draco!

Post any weather pictures you have to the JIWB facebook page. Also feel free to tell your weather happenings in the comments or the live chat box on the right side of this page.


We are in a winter weather advisory from 1:pm EST this afternoon until 10:am EST Friday.

* MAIN IMPACT: Travel may become very difficult with blowing and drifting snow, gusty winds, and slick icy roads.

* WINDS: Sustained winds of  25 - 35 mph at times with possible gusts to 40 - 45 mph.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1" to 3" Inches.


* WIND CHILL VALUES: Single digits.


This storm has gone up in expected snowfall at this time. The timing is pretty much the same as yesterday's thinking. Right now we are in the dry slot before that second bit of rain moves in followed by our snow event. Take a look.
You see that wide area over central Indiana with nothing, no rain or snow? That's the dry slot. You can really understand it by looking at this satellite image below.
This is a look at our moisture. At this time we're pulling in a lot of that dry air from our southwest. This is what forms a dry slot and gives us a break before that second round (The back side of the storm moves in).
Like I said timing still seems to be spot on. I'm looking for that rain snow mix to be between 4:pm and 6:pm give or take a little. With accumulating snow starting after 7:pm and not ending until we head into Friday morning.
I did go ahead and up the expected snowfall amounts ever so slightly. New data point to another possible half inch in areas.
This bufkit model above is showing the Lafayette area with 1.4" to 1.9" inches when all is said and done. Yes, just under 2" inches. But with that said I also have MOS models showing snowfall anywhere between a trace to 2" inches. This is exactly why we forecast a range during the winter months and nothing is ever set in stone.
Here's my newest thinking on our snowfall totals.
I like .50" to 1" inch down around I-70 and south. 1" to 2.5" inches for much of us in central Indiana. Slightly higher amounts around Remington, in Newton, and Jasper, counties with a possible 1.5" to 3" inches. And a good 2" to 4" inches in northern Indiana where they will see much heavier snow bands set up.
With that said, make sure you have your snow measuring boards up and ready to go in a good non snow drifting area. With winds blowing between 35 and 40 mph getting an accurate snow measurement is going to be the real challenge! 1" to 3" inches of snow can drift much much deeper then that in winds of this magnitude.
So for tonight into Friday our main storm threats will be.
High gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph. Blowing and drifting snow. Slick and icy roads as lows will be in the 20s. And last but not least, wind chills will pose a threat! With winds this high and a expected low tonight of 28* degrees we will see wind chills in the single digits. Near 9* degrees!
Stay warm and safe bloggers. I have to work tonight but I'll check back soon.


I'm going through data right now bloggers. I will have a look at the latest possible snowfall totals very soon. Details coming up!
Stay Tuned!

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Great Way To Kick Off The First Official Day Of Winter! First Snow Of The Season On The Way!

What you're looking at above is one of my favorite weather models to use during winter weather. And guess what those beautiful blue bars mean on this image!!!!! SNOW! Yes, we're tracking a big weather system that will move in by as soon as midnight / 1:am tonight.We have a strong low pressure system that will give way to blizzard contitions across parts of the midwest over the next few days. We're not looking for anything of that magnatude in our area, however some heavy rain changing over to snow is in our future.
Here's a look at the system we will be tracking over the next day or two below.
Right now we are expecting to see rain move in sometime after midnight tonight. Rain will go through out Thursday until later that evening when it starts to change over to some snow showers. By the time we're finished with the rain, we could very well have picked up between .50" and 1" inch of rainfall.
(Image looking into 1:am EST Thursday).
Right now I'm expecting that rain to snow change over to be sometime around 6:pm or 7:pm EST Thursday. Give or take a little.
Above is a look at a surface chart looking into 7:pm EST Thursday. We will see that cold cold polar air wrap around into our area with a high starting out on Thursday at 50* degrees falling as the day continues. Only to end up with a low that night of 24* degrees! Snow showers would continue into the Friday morning hours before tapering off that late morning / early afternoon.
So how much snowfall am I currently expecting across the area? Well, take a look below.
Now remember that these numbers are simply a range of what we could see. I'm currently looking for areas around I-70 to pick up around an inch of snowfall possible. Central Indiana around the Lafayette, area to pick up between .50" and 1.50" inches. The Bufkit models are showing the likely hood of 1.3" inches of snow for the Lafayette, area at this time. With heavier snow at times the more north you go in areas of Newton, and Jasper, counties where I'm calling for a more wide area of 2" to 3" inches possible.
I will continue to go through data as much as possible to keep you all posted. I will try to update these number later on tonight after work. So stay tuned and get winter ready! What a great way to kick off the first official day of winter (Dec 21st).

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Are You Dreaming Of A White Christmas?

Can you believe it is only 8 days til Christmas? Its coming very very fast. This is crunch time not only for the last minute shoppers but also for any meteorologist. The weather models are lighting up like lights on a Christmas tree. We have so much going on this week that could be the difference between a white Christmas and a green one. But before I get to that lets go ahead and look at whats in store for tonight.
I'm currently looking for dew points to drop around 35* degrees with an air temperature tonight around 36* degrees. So a foggy night / early Monday morning will be in the cards. Allow extra time to get where you need to be and be careful if you're out and about.
As we head into Monday we will look for mostly cloudy skies across the area with a high around 48* degrees. Winds will be light between 10 and 15 mph. Rain showers will try to move into the area later on Monday afternoon / evening. Rainfall will be between .10" and .25" inches. Expect a low around 32* degrees.
Tuesday we will see partly cloudy skies across the area with a mild high around 50* degrees. A low that night falling to 35* degrees. As we look ahead into later this week I do see temperatures trying to get back around normal after Thursday the 20th. Much cooler air will try to filter in.
So how about our snow chances for Christmas? Well, right now we have so many different model readings telling us different things. I really cannot set anything in stone just yet. However I do agree with the National weather service's thoughts on our chances of a white Christmas.

Above is a chart showing our White Christmas snow chance. You can see we're keeping that 60% to 75% and 90% percent chance well north of our area. With Indiana, and much of the lower midwest in that 25% to 40% percent chance. You may think "25% to 40% percent is a pretty wide window?". And you're right! However at this time the models are still unsure how things'll play out.
Right now we have colder air that will try to filter in as we head into December 20th. Once this happens we will also have at least two shots at some snow showers in the area before Christmas. The question is "Will it be enough for coat the ground?". We have a chance of snow showers in the area between December 20th and the 21st, with another chance of some snow showers on Christmas eve. Things are to inconsistent at the moment to set any forecast in stone. I have watched these systems change so so much over the past few weeks. All we can do now is continue to watch them closely and forecast them as best to our ability as we can with the information we currently have. This is why we currently have such a wide window with that 25% to 40% percent chance of a white Christmas. I will be able to dial this forecast in much more as we head closer to the big day!
Here are a few snow extremes from Christmas Day's past:
Greatest Snowfall on Christmas Day
Greatest Snow Depth on Christmas Day
5.9” in 1909
9” in 2004
4.4” in 1926
7” in 2002
3.3” in 1890
7” in 1909
2.6” in 2005
6” in 1995
2.4” in 1935
6” in 1935

Have a great day bloggers. I will check back real soon.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

White Christmas? Watching two systems over the next few weeks.

Christmas is getting closer everyday and the month of December is an active one weather - wise. We have two more systems to watch between now and Christmas. One of which will be a warm weather system with precipitation in the form of rain. The other one could very well be our first snow of the season!
I don't want to give a full peak into our Christmas forecast just yet as its still subject to change. This system I have been tracking over the past few days has already changed at least two different times. So nothing is set in stone just yet. However I will have details on your Christmas outlook very soon.
Here's a look at the timing of when the next two systems can be expected.
That first system can be expected between the 15th and 16th. A warm weather system with lots of rain. The second system is the one I'm tracking over Christmas time. Some models show it heading in between Christmas eve and Christmas day, while other models have it moving in a little slower between Christmas night and December 26th. So this is one we'll have to watch over the next few days very closely! This is the system that will either give us a white Christmas or a green one.
Here's a look at how the weather conditions looked last year in Lafayette, IN over Christmas time below.



Minimum Temperature

32.0 °F

Mean Temperature

37.2 °F

Maximum Temperature

46.0 °F

Pressure and Dew Point

Mean Sea Level Pressure

30.22 IN

Mean Dew Point

28.6 °F


Total Precipitation

0.00 IN
Rain and/or melted snow reported during the day.


10.0 MI

Snow Depth

No data.

Wind Speed and Gusts

Mean Wind Speed

10.47 MPH

Maximum Sustained Wind Speed

20.00 MPH

Maximum Wind Gust

29.92 MPH
As for our weather tonight.
We have a COLD night ahead as the skies will be clear allowing that cold air to filter in giving us a low of only 24* degrees. Winds will be light between 10 and 15 mph.
I will keep you posted on our Christmas forecast. Have a great day bloggers.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Blizzard video from MN, and SD.

The system that gave way to all our rain over the past few days has lifted northeast. This system that gave way to heavy rainfall at times across Indiana, is also part of the same low pressure system that caused blizzard conditions in areas to our northwest in MN, and SD.  Heavy  heavy snowfall with winds blowing to 40+ mph. here in Indiana we saw a few light snow flurries this evening however nothing even close to what I like about winter.

I have a few weather videos from both MN, and SD, below. Armature video uploaded to youtube from first hand eye witnesses. Take a look. 
Blizzard of the year in places of Minnesota. You can see people trying to dig out of over 18" inches of snow across parts of Minnesota. This storm has left its mark on anything in its path. Roads especially! It has been a nightmare for roads crews trying to keep up with the accumulating snow. Many accidents have accrued over the past few days do to the slick snowy / icy conditions.

Here is another look at this dangerous blizzard from the SD, side of things.
Brookings, South Dakota Blizzard 2012.
They didn't have any snow before this blizzard blew through. This is two days of continuous snow and 40mph winds. It stopped when it when about knee deep. With winds of 40+ mph and snow this deep, it can easily drift several feet high! I've measured 4" inches of snow here in Lafayette, IN before that has drifted into 12" and 15" inches in areas! It can get pretty crazy. I pray that everyone stays safe and practices caution during this major snow event.

So what about us here in the Midwest? well, we will have a COLD Tuesday with highs only reaching 38* degrees at the most. Along with a low Tuesday night around 24* degrees!  
We will have a brief warm up as we head into the middle of this week where highs could reach the upper 40s to low 50s once again. Looking ahead into the next few weeks we will watch a few more systems trying to develop and move into the area. I will have a post soon talking about the current storm track and if we will see a white Christmas here in Indiana this year. We have so many questions and not enough answers right now. So I will continue to go through data and keep you posted as much as possible. Have a great night bloggers. God Bless!

Scattered snow flurries today

We have a chance of a few light scattered snow flurries in the area today. Much colder weather setting in over the next few days. I will have details in a new post later tonight!
Stay tuned!

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Blizzard warnings in effect for SD. Still trying to level out in the hoosier state.

Alright bloggers. We have been talking about a system developing over the 10th for the past two weeks now. Its getting closer and we finally have something to track. I knew this system was going to be a big one ever sense I first saw it developing on many different weather models. The only major change is this system has lifted a few hundred miles north and west, a little more then this kind of systems usually does. So instead of us seeing some snow on the back side of this storm, we will now stay all rain.
Above is a surface chart looking into Sunday morning around 7:am EST. You can see that low pressure just to the southwest of Indiana. That warm front will keep us in the green this time around. Heavy snow bands will be only a few short miles northwest of Indiana in areas of Minnesota and SD. They're expecting blizzard conditions in areas!
We have a slight chance of seeing a few snow showers mix in with the rain showers, however nothing definitive at this time. Still looking like a mainly rain event for us.
Take a look at the National weather service map below showing all the areas just northwest of us in the blizzard warnings, winter weather watches, advisories, ETC.
We could've picked up a good 2" to 4" inches of snowfall from this system had it not lifted a few hundred miles north and west. You have no idea how much that burns me lol. I love snow and have yet to see that first inch this season!
Aberdeen, South Dakota, seems to be the bulls eye this time around. Take a look.
Message From The National Weather Service
"A potent winter storm will develop across the region this weekend. Heavy snow will lift across eastern South Dakota today, followed by lighter snow but increasing winds late Saturday night. By early Sunday morning, widespread blizzard conditions are expected across the northern tier of the state. Snow accumulation will range from an inch or two in central South Dakota to over 7 inches for the Sisseton hills."
That's right, areas in and around Aberdeen, could very well see winds gusting to 40+ mph at times with anywhere between 5" and 7" inches of snowfall. Oh how I'd love to be up there right now haha :)
Here's our weather break down below.
TONIGHT- look for mostly cloudy skies across the area with a few scattered showers likely. Rainfall tonight between .10" and .25" inches. Winds light between 10 and 15 mph. Low around 35* degrees.
SUNDAY- we will see rain showers across the area with a high around 54* degrees. Rainfall between .25" and .50" inches possible. Winds will be between 15 and 20 mph gusting to 25 mph at times. A high Monday around 54* degrees with a low that night around 30* degrees.
MONDAY- we will start out the day with cloudy skies and a few lingering rain / snow mix showers possible. Skies will try to clear as the day continues becoming partly cloudy. A high around 34* degrees and falling, followed by a low that night COLD around 19* degrees.
Above is a chart looking at our average high for the month of December. You can see we will try to get close to that number over the next few days. However I do see us slightly above average once again as we head into the middle of next week. 40s return. We have another system we will track as we move closer to the 15th and 16th. It's unclear what type of precipitation will come of it at this time. However I will keep you posted. I'm hoping we will level out soon weather - wise. We need some real December weather!
Take care bloggers. God Bless.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Winter is on the way! We have a busy month ahead.

I just went through a few weather models real quick and found some winter weather developing over next week! I'm talking about the cold weather returning across the area along with a very active weather pattern setting up with multiple storm chances over the next few weeks.
I have been talking about a system developing over the 10th for over a week now, and its still in my forecast today. As you can see above I have listed the three main events this month. Starting with our active weather pattern developing. This active pattern will kick off with our first system as we head closer to the 10th. I see two more systems developing from our southwest between December 14th and 21st also! With that said this allows me to go ahead and give around a 60% chance for a white Christmas this year. Now nothing is set in stone however at this time I'm liking our chances.

We will see highs fall back around normal for this time of year by the 10th. Highs will only be in the 30s with lows in the 20s. I will continue to go through data over the next few days and I will keep you posted. We have a busy month ahead of us bloggers. Stay tuned!

Monday, December 3, 2012

Rain Tonight. Active Weather Pattern Setting Up!

Above is a look at what we're tracking tonight and into Tuesday. This line of rain showers forming along a cold front will make its way through the area during the overnight hours. Along with the rain, the cold front will help us get our high temperatures closer to the average for this time of year. Its been crazy, our average high for this time of year is around 35* degrees. We have been a good 20 to 30 degrees above our average over the past few days. Once this cold front moves through the area we will see highs fall back into the 40s and 50s however this will still be a good 15 to 20 degrees above where we're suppose to be. Average low for this time of year is 20* degrees. So we have some work to do. I'm still looking for that harsh snap back to normal from nature as we head into the second week of this month.
I'll talk more about that here in just a second. First off lets break down the forecast for tonight.
You're looking at a surface chart for 1:am EST Tuesday. You can see that line of rain showers moving closer as well as the cold front. Right now I'm expecting rainfall sometime after 1:am. A low tonight around 53* degrees with winds between 15 and 20 mph. Gusts to 25 and 30 mph possible.
The rain showers will linger into the day hours of Tuesday before tapering off. This is a surface chart looking into Tuesday around 1:pm EST. As we head into the late afternoon and evening hours we will see the skies start to clear out a bit becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear during the overnight. A high Tuesday around 57* degrees with a low that night around 34* degrees. Winds will be between 10 and 15 mph gusting to 20 mph at times.
Now for that system I have been watching for the second week of December.
Here is a look at one of my weather models showing this system developing to our southwest on December 10th. I've been watching this system closely because of this strong low pressure system giving way to heavy precipitation in many areas of its path. whether it be in the form of rain or snow. This will be one to watch!
Here is another model image looking into the 11th. That colder air starts getting wrapped into this system putting us on the colder side with snow potential. After this system lifts to our northeast we will really see that cold air filter in getting our highs and lows back around where they should be for this time of year. With that said, its looking like an active weather pattern for the month of December!
This is something to watch. I will keep you posted. Have a great day bloggers.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Nature is snapping back with cold temperatures and an active weather pattern!

Finally we have something going on in the weather world to talk about here on Justin's Indiana Weather Blog. We have been in a real calm weather pattern here in the midwest over the past few days to weeks. The biggest weather event we've talked about over the past week has been this Indian summer with highs pushing 70* degrees by this Monday! CRAZY!!! It's December 2nd and almost 70* degrees!?!? We need some cold weather to forecast, and that's just what I have in store.
But first off lets take a look at what we have to expect over the next 24 hours here in Indiana. Here's tonight's forecast below.
That's right, we have yet another chance at some foggy conditions across the area as we head into the overnight / early Monday morning. I'm looking for a low tonight around 54* degrees with dew points only a degree apart around 53* degrees. A light wind between 5 and 10 mph will make conditions right for fog. Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies across the area.
So when do things start to get interesting weather-wise here in the midwest? well, if you count the fog then things get interesting by as soon as tonight. If not, then by as soon as tomorrow and into Tuesday.
As we head into Monday around 7:am you can see this surface chart above showers that stationary front over the area allowing a few scattered showers to linger off and on through out much of the day. Currently for Monday I'm calling for partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with around a 15% percent chance of a few scattered hit and miss showers during the day hours. As we head into Monday night we will see an increase in clouds as another front approaches.
Above is a look into Monday around 7:pm EST. You can see that approaching cold front with a line of showers / thundershowers out in front. This will make its way into the area during the later hours on Monday / early Tuesday. Showers and a few thundershowers cannot be ruled out. nothing strong / severe to worry about. Rainfall is expected to be between .25" and .50" inches. Winds could pick up as we head into the overnight on Monday once this front moves in. Winds gusting anywhere between 28 and 35 mph possible. Here's your forecast break down below.
TONIGHT- we will see mostly to partly cloudy skies across the area. Lows will be around 54* degrees with a chance of light patchy fog in areas. Winds light between 5 and 10 mph.
MONDAY- expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with around a 15% percent chance of a few scattered hit and miss showers during the day hours. An increase in clouds as the day continues. Another line of showers / thundershowers move in later that night into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy between 15 and 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Increasing to 28 and 35 mph later that night. A high around 69* degrees with a low around 47* degrees.
TUESDAY- we will start the day with showers in the area as a cold front pushes off to our east. Expect a high around 58* degrees with a low Tuesday night around 36* degrees. skies will try to clear a bit as the day continues.
Looking ahead into the second week of December, things will start to get even more interesting! Winter will return in the area as I'm seeing a much deeper cold trying to set in. NAO and AO models indicate much cooler temps developing as the models fall into a negative phase. As this happens we are also watching a developing system as we head into the second week of December. It's looking like an active weather pattern setting up.
Above is a sneak peak into one of my weather models showing signs of a developing system during the second week of December. A strong low pressure system trying to develop and move northeast across the midwest. This system could very well be something to give way to not only heavy rain and windy conditions in the area but also snow! Now nothing is set in stone as this is looking ahead a week, however its something that has caught my attention and wanted to share.
Here's another look just a few hours later. You can see that trough of cold air plunging into the midwest just to the west of Indiana. (The blue lines). This is part of that deeper cold trying to set in. Enjoy these warmer days while you can, cause it's not going to last much longer. December is coming back strong! Weather is like a giant rubber band, The more you stretch it, "as in drifting away from the normal weather pattern, temperatures etc", The harder it snaps back into place! So even though the 60s have been nice for all the warm weather lovers, we're going to pay for it with this deep trough and active weather pattern setting up!
Have a great day bloggers. I'll check back soon.
God Bless.