Saturday, January 31, 2015

final thoughts on snowfall.

Alright bloggers. The final weather data is in and I have made a few adjustments. I am lowering the expected snowfall amounts and I believe I'm the only one doing this right now. I'm expecting our temperature to rise a bit Sunday afternoon to above freezing. To at least 34F degrees! This would mean more mixed precipitation rather then all snow. This would mean lower snowfall totals. Also with the latest models I'm seeing that 540 line drift a bit more north then what they were showing earlier this morning. At least another 60 to 70 miles north! This makes big changes as I said in my post early this morning. Take a look below.
The Bufkit models are also agreeing with my thoughts on this system. They too are now showing less snowfall. between now and 7:am - ish Sunday we will see lighter precipitation and more of it in the form of rain / rain snow mix. It will try to become all snow again Sunday late morning / afternoon hours. The heaviest snowfall is currently looking to be between 10:am and 6:pm Sunday (Give or take).

Here is a look at my snowfall forecast below.
I expect our high tomorrow to peak at 34F degrees briefly! Winds between 15 and 20 mph gusting to 25 mph at times. A low that night around 13F degrees!

We do still have Winter storm warnings in effect for the viewing area until Monday morning. Also Winter weather advisories in effect until Monday morning for the counties south of Tippecanoe.

I will check back as needed bloggers. Remember to check us out on Facebook!

Linus starting to snow

We have had some reports of the precipitation changing over to some freezing drizzle in the Tippecanoe county area. Temperature is currently at 32F degrees. things are very slick out right now! be very careful if you must go out.

Stay Tuned!

Update as of 9:50pm EST.
Currently in Lafayette, it is 32F degrees, Winds light out of the southwest. Light wet snow.  Currently Lafayette, is up to 0.03" of wet slick snow.

I'll have another update up soon!
We're starting to see that rain change over to a rain snow mix / all snow in some areas. Reports in from West Lafayette, of all snow! Currently in Lafayette, it is around 34F degrees and a rain snow mix. So far the timing is on target for this system. I will continue to go through data and keep you posted!

Winter Storm Linus Still Causing Problems.

This system is continuing to build to our southwest, It is inching closer to the Indiana, area as time goes on. Rain showers are already developing in parts of IL. I have gone through more data and currently it is looking like we will start out this event with a rain / snow mix likely. Starting somewhere between 6:pm and 8:pm EST give or take. 
The Bufkit model above is showing us starting this event between 6:pm and 8:pm EST with that green bar. This would mean rain. Soon changing over to some snow with maybe 1" to 3" expected. We could see a brief break in the precipitation before the heavier bands move into the area. Bufkit showing this brief break somewhere between 1:am and 4:am EST Sunday give or take. Heavier bands with more steady snowfall move in early Sunday morning through out the day. Another 4" to 6" inches could be picked up!

The tricky thing with this system is still our temperatures and if we will see an all snow event or more of a mix. right now the latest model data is still pointing to the Lafayette, and north areas to see more off a snow event. You can see that in the Bufkit models above with almost all "Blue bars". You can also see this in this model below.
This precipitation type model above is also currently keeping us in more of an all snow event. This is good for snow lovers! However that 540 line we talked about in the last update is still SO SO close that pinpointing these snowfall amounts is dang near impossible. But everyone is doing their best.
above is a look at a surface map around 1:am EST Sunday. You can see that cold front trying to make it's way through the area. Also that rain snow line in the pink. That first round so to speak of snow will be starting to tapper off giving way to just a brief break before the rest moves in soon after.
Here is a look at the surface chart around 1:pm EST. You can see that freeze line still setting up closer to the Lafayette, area. Heavier snow band just north of that line with rain and snow mix to the south.

Here is a look at the current expected snowfall totals for the Lafayette, area and near by counties. I will continue to tweak these numbers as more data becomes available to me. Nothing is set in stone with this forecast.
Don't forget to stay posted on our JIWB Facebook page as well!

Winter Storm Linus!

Good morning bloggers! We have a pretty messy developing winter storm working it's way closer to our area. It's bringing some major snowfall amounts along with it as well as some gusty winds and much colder temps! Take a look at this system out to our southwest still brewing before it heads our way.
This system will start affecting Indiana later on this afternoon / evening sometime between 6:pm and 8:pm EST. The tricky thing about this system is our temperatures! depending on how warm we are when the system moves in will decide if we see an all snow event, or a mix of both rain and snow. Take a look at this NAM model image below.
Here you can see this system making it's way through the area. You can see all the deep greens and yellows. These are the heavier snow bands. If all snow it could be as much as 8" to 12" inches in some areas! however you can also see that bold reed line I drew on this map. This is the 540 line. This is basically what separates the below freezing and above freezing temperatures. See how close that 540 line is to the viewing area? This is why this system is SO TRICKY to forecast. If this line moves just a few SHORT miles north or south it will effect how much snowfall is seen across the area.  I guess I'm saying that on this system it is okay to cut the meteorologist some slack lol. This one isn't easy by any means.

with that said let me go ahead and show you all what some of the current model data is pointing too snow - wise. Below is a look at the Bufkit weather model.
This model is fairly good at pinpointing the timing and possible amounts. Right now you can see it has the snow starting somewhere between 6:pm and 8:pm tonight. Maybe a brief break before the heavier snow, Then picking back up again around 7:am EST Sunday.  we could see 1" to 3" inches of snowfall today alone, With the rest accumulating Sunday. so how much grand total? well, again with what the models are pointing to currently, I have drawn up a map. Take a look.
Right now I like the Lafayette, area in the 5" to 8" range. with that said I expect a wide range in who sees what (Snowfall amount - wise) in that 5" to 8" band. By that I mean, for an example Lafayette could see 8" while West Lafayette, may see closer to 5". Tippecanoe and surrounding counties are so close to the 540 line amounts will vary! Because as I said above if this 540 line shifts just a few short miles north or south it will greatly impact how much snow is seen.

I like the more northern counties to see the 8" to 10" and even isolated 8" to 12" in areas! They will stay all snow and see the biggest amounts no doubt!

Alright bloggers that's it for now. I will keep watching this snow storm and keep you posted. Keep checking back here and on the JIWB Facebook page for more updates!