Wednesday, May 13, 2009

****Update As Of 10:12PM****

OK I'M back with a quick update! Above are the most recent weather reports sent into the NWS. There have already been around 18 tornadoes reported with this squall line in areas from OK, all the way up to MO. Now remember these are the areas we thought would see the tornadoes for they are the areas with all the needed wind shear to work with..... Now our wind shear has been much lower which is a good sign. However we do have a lot of tornado watches just to our west in IL, right on the state line. Still we are keeping our tornado threat at around 5% chance. We will continue to watch this closely as this front keep moving our way.

Now it still is looking like the worst of this line wants to stay to our south and west in southern parts of IL, and then MO, like we have already seen tonight. Now we should see this line in at least Central IL, close to home by sometime around 11:pm or just after. This is when we will again know even more on what it really wants to do!

We still will not rule out an isolated severe storm as it is still very possible! Still I think our main threats will be Lightning, as there have been MANY lightning strikes picked up on lightning tracker. Then winds gusting to 35 maybe even a gust to 40 mph is still possible. So far our peak gusts in Lafayette has been 29 mph. And then some Pea sized hail cannot be ruled out as well. A big threat is still the Rivers with all this rainfall we have seen. We have picked up two inches here in Lafayette and there is still much more to come. Again we could pick up another 1.50" to 2.00" inches in this next line! (We don't need that) As this system gets closer we will know even more! One model is showing the slight chance for this system to try to break up a bit as it gets closer! Time will tell that is for sure! As you all know you have to be careful in trusting weather models! So we will continue to watch the radars and current observations and I (WILL) be back with another update here soon!


Anonymous said...

worried!! thank you Justin, at least we have you! twitter stinks!

I wish our local weather blog did as much as you.

Prayers for all in the path of those storms.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Justin!
I am worried as well.

Anonymous said...

There is a discussion going (with NWS) as to whether or not extend the tornado watch into our area as the one remaining is set to expire. That is NOT what I wanted to hear!!! Justin, what is our lifted index? And all the other stuff that is required to make our air unstable?

Just when I was starting to relax a little. Sooo nervous now!! :-(