OK the latest weather models are in!! And I'M back with slightly better news! Here is why I'M thinking we are not looking as bad as what we did earlier this morning. You can see in this satellite image above that we are seeing more clouds then we did this time yesterday! Not major cloud cover however some high clouds and only off and on sun. This has helped to keep us more stable then yesterday as well. Yesterday we hit that high of 93* degrees. Well, today that has not been the case! Another way we know we are slightly more stable then yesterday is many people where reporting seeing those cumulus clouds towering high in the sky yesterday! Today if you look out it is not near as bad. When clouds start to tower high like yesterday that is a good idea that the atmosphere is becoming really unstable. Today we can tell that there is some slight instability however not like we seen yesterday. Currently our Lifted Index is at around -2. Usually to support severe thunderstorms we need a Lifted Index of around -4 or lower.......... The latest weather models are showing the most unstable air mass to our south which is where they are looking at -7 (LI). You can see the shaded areas in this map is where the most unstable areas are expected to be this evening.. Currently it is looking from I74 south.
Another thing is I have been watching our CAPE all day! And in each new update our CAPE values have gone down little by little very slowly. Still we will be on the look out for some frequent lightning and some heavy rainfall. I think we will now keep the tornado threat low at a 1% to 2% chance. I don't want to rule out a stray severe thunderstorm tonight as that is still looking possible. I do think some of our northern counties are looking pretty good up around Newton, and Jasper, counties! But to say we are all clear we cannot do!! Severe weather is still possible but our outlook is looking better as currently the most unstable air is staying south at this time!!
I will however continue to watch this storm in the making as in Indiana we change all the time. And as always I will keep you all posted!
Stay Tuned for the latest!!!....................
3 comments:
Thanks, Justin! You are a dedicated young man for sure. I still have to learn about CAPE adn LI indexes. I am glad you are keeping us updated.
I'll be here with you and the others if things start to pop!
MA In REM
Thanks Justin.
As we are so close to the severe weather threat I also am keeping my guard up. Still feeling nervous, but not near as bad as yesterday! Hopefully none of us will see any severe!
Angela
Sweet! Thanks for the update man!
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