Sunday, January 16, 2011

Everything Is A Mess With This System!

Hey everyone! First off before I get to the weather I just wanted to say what an awesome job on the voting poll this week! I have to say it has been pretty cool to see everyone's thoughts on what has caused the mass of dead wildlife in the country. I still believe that we may never know the real reason for the cause. However Mike Prangley, has his own thinking on this event! In case some of you didn't see this on his blog I thought I would go ahead and post it for everyone! He has a pretty good explanation!

(A Few Words From Mike Prangley's Weather Blog)

Well, the birds dying off in Arkansas and in Europe have not been proven to be caused by the weather but I am sure it had some hand in it. These mass kill-offs of wildlife we are being told is a common occurrence and we are being made more aware of it due to the information ages many tools including the Internet and I-phones at our disposal. Well that is only part of the equation. I think birds do not just drop out of the sky due to being scared by fireworks. They were also likely lifted by extreme turbulence in the area that was feeding into developing thunderstorms to the east. Once those birds get at a certain altitude they can become confused and disoriented especially at night. This is likely a better explanation. The turtle doves in Italy? Well as outlandish as our weather has been at home it has been much more extreme in Europe. The best I can do for now is provide you a link I found that can help you keep track of big events and weather events that are impacting wildlife all over the globe. It is pretty interesting to say the least.

So again we may never know the real true reason. This still seems like a good start!

Now, Lets get to the weather!

Oh my goodness bloggers where should I start with this one? There is so much to forecast between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. Timing and amounts. Temperatures and so on! WOW. Let's just get to it I guess. :)

First off, The last time we looked at this storm we was expecting a possible ice event with snow on top of it! However this time things are looking a little different. Take a look at Monday's (Tomorrow's) highs below.
That's right highs Monday around 35* degrees. This is a good three degrees above freezing. So you guessed it! Instead of starting out with snow, we will start out as rain / sleet between the times of 3:pm and 5:pm EST Monday when this system really starts to move into the area. This system is starting to look more like a rain / sleet event rather then a snow and ice event! Some models are showing a small time frame of some possible freezing rain to start this system however any ice accumulation would be less then a tenth inch! So nothing to really worry about. For the day of Monday I'm looking for precipitation around a tenth inch. With the ice accumulation like I said above less then a tenth inch.

You can see what the system is expected to look like on Monday around 7:pm EST with this surface chart below.Most of the snow will stay to the north of the viewing area with a rain sleet mix for us here at home. Icy mess just to our north with all rain to our south! Right now I'm really not looking for much in the way of snowfall with this system for the WLFI viewing area! This map I'm about to show you below is showing what the best snow possibilities would be! However currently I'm thinking we will see less then a half inch here in the WLFI viewing area!I do expect 1" to 2" inches of snow in northern Indiana. Most of the WLFI viewing area will see less then a half inch however the northern counties in the WLFI viewing area have the better chance of that inch or less. Areas to our east may see 1" to 2" inches. With areas from Indianapolis south only seeing a trace of snow.

So again not a big snow event, But more of a sleet / rain event! Here's your quick cast break down below.

Monday we will start out with mostly cloudy skies through out the viewing area. As we head into the evening hours we will start to see this system move in. currently thinking between the times of 3:pm and 5:pm EST. We will see some possible sleet / freezing rain before becoming all rain. Around a tenth inch of precipitation is expected. Freezing rain would be less then a tenth inch. Highs will be around freezing and slightly above around 35* degrees. With lows that night around 32* degrees. Winds between 10 and 15 mph with a few gusts near 20 mph possible.

Tuesday we will continue to see rain / sleet through out much of the morning hours. Expected sleet / rainfall between 0.25" inches and 0.30" inches. We will start to see a change over from rain / sleet to some snow showers in the late morning / early afternoon hours. Snowfall around a half inch or less. Expect highs Tuesday around 36* degrees with lows that night around 14* degrees once that cold front passes over the area. Expect winds between 10 and 15 mph.

Most exact models are showing snowfall around 0.05" Inches at this time. So again at this time this system isn't looking much like a snow event. However I will continue to watch this system through out the morning hours of Monday and if I see any changes I will be sure to let you all know!

So for now I'm going to rest up for a big day of forecasting! And I will try and be back here this afternoon / early evening for another update!
Take Care and God Bless!

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