Sunday, February 27, 2011

Slight Risk For Severe Weather! Watching This Evening.

Well, as you can see above the Storm Prediction Center has put our area in that slight risk for severe weather tonight into early Monday! This is because models indicate that we will be unstable enough to support a few possible stray strong storms or two over this evening / tonight. I have been going through data all morning and right now I'm seeing CAPE values around 1,500 J/kg and EHI around 2.25. So storms are possible. However the question is where will the really severe stuff set up? Here's a map I put together for you below.Right now I believe that the main severe weather will set up just to our south! Right around I-70 and south. However with it being that close a few stray strong storms or two cannot be ruled out! I still believe that the MAIN severe impact zone will be to our south in southern Indiana and southeast of there.

Even though we are in the Stray strong storm or two range this doesn't mean we're in the clear by any means! Here's what I believe our main storm threats will be over the next few hours as of now.You can see I look for heavy rainfall anywhere between 1" and 2" inches possible! This will cause some minor river flooding and maybe even some low land flooding in areas. Also I expect winds to be gusting to 35 - and 45 mph in storms with winds gusting as high as 50+ mph the more south you go! Currently south of the viewing area.

Also I cannot rule out some possible small hail with CAPE values where they currently are. And then dangerous lightning is a threat. I always make that a threat on my severe list because even if the storm isn't severe lightning is always dangerous!!

Right now I think we will start to see some scattered rain showers move into the area later on this evening around 8:pm EST give or take a little. That's the latest for now bloggers. I have a few things I need to do and then I will be back here this evening before the storms move in with yet another look at things! So stay tuned.

God Bless!