Monday, April 4, 2011

Instability Not That Impressive...

Well, bloggers you can see all the severe weather reports from this line of storms to our west in this image above. (CLICK TO ENLARGE). Over 249 reports! All of large hail and high winds! Thank God no tornadoes reported up to this point and time. However tomorrow will be a totally different story when it comes to severe weather and tornadoes for other states in the U.S. Take a look at where I expect the main or should I say highest risk for tornadoes to set up tomorrow.
Yes, to our south and east. Mainly in the TENN, MISS, ALA, Parts of Arkansas and southern KY. And then this severe threat will push east as the day continues (Monday). If your in these areas or know family in or around these areas give them a call before day break tomorrow (Monday) and make sure they have the heads up just in case!

As for us! Well, right now the instability just doesn't look that great in our area. I'm looking at current LI around -1 which we usually like it to be around -3 and -4 for a better chance of wide spread severe development. Also EHI values are only around 0.5 which is low. And CAPE values aren't impressive! We are slightly (Slightly) unstable however not a whole lot. With that said we will see the stronger storms stay to our west in areas of IL, and well to our north even, However I cannot rule out the possibility of a stray strong storm or two somewhere in the viewing area between late late tonight / early tomorrow (Monday) morning. Here's what the main threats would be.

Lightning, As with any thunderstorm.

Possible gusty winds in thunderstorms. Maybe between 45 - 60 mph possible.

And our tornado threat is really (LOW) as in 2% chc, or less at this time. We just don't seem to have the current conditions to support one, (Thank God) ;)

So at this time not looking like a wide spread severe weather event at least for our viewing area however as I said above thunderstorms by early morning after 3:am EDT - 4:am EDT. And a stray strong storm cannot be ruled out.

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