Monday, November 7, 2011

What Could Nature Mean By The Words (Rough Winter)? Looking Into Indiana's 2011 - 2012 Winter Forecast.

It's been a little while bloggers, But I have managed to develop a look into the coming winter for you all. I have gone through a few weather models however this year I have done a lot of the forecast with almanacs and nature herself! So lets get to it so we can see how it plays out shall we?

For starters we will take a look into this very month, (November).
I have gone through data and it is seeming that we will be looking for the month of November to be more on the average / slightly above average side when it comes to the temperatures. With this La-nina jet stream pattern that's in place we will be looking at many temperature differences through out the winter, However I'll get more on that in just a bit. Take a look at this temperature map for the month of November below.

The below image is looking at the temperatures late November / December / January.

The average high for November is around 50* degrees. even as we end this week we could be seeing highs in the lower 60s again. Average low for November is around 32* degrees. So expect an average / slightly above average November.

Precipitation on the other hand is looking around average to slightly below average this month. See this chart out of the climate prediction center below.

As we look into December things will be again (Up and down) temperature - wise. We could very well see equal days of both above and below average highs and lows through out the month of December! It will be a tricky month. Take a look at the temperature outlook from the CPC below.
This above image is a three month outlook, Dec, Jan, Feb...

As for the precipitation during the month of December, I see us around average / slightly above average however December will not be our snowy month this year. I see our snowiest months to possibly be late January into February. Here's the three month precipitation outlook out of the CPC below. This is looking into Dec, Jan, and Feb...
Though December is not looking like our snowiest month this season, Nature is calling for December to be a windy one! We could see some bitter cold wind chills this winter!

So why could temperature changes be so crazy this season? Bitter cold temps soon followed by mild temps? Well, it all has to do with our weak La-nina jet stream pattern.
You can see in this image taken in October the slightly cooler waters. Colors in Blues and Purples. This is the weak La-nina. Here is a look at the differences in the jet stream patterns during a La-nina event and an El-nino event below.

You can see the El-nino jet stream in the yellow, and the La-nina jet stream in the purple. With La-nina we see many troughs and ridges in the jet stream. This is what will continue to warm and cool us this winter! Cooler temperatures as a trough moves through while more mild temperatures during the ridge.

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Now I know I have a lot of snow lovers out there as well that probably aren't to happy with this winter outlook. And I do apologize! However even nature is having a tough time giving hints as to how this winter will play out! Here's a look at the weather folklore side of things!

They say that when spiders spin unusually large webs it can mean a rough winter!
Three rather large webs found in September. All pictures taken on the same day..
Also during the month of September there were many squirrels gathering food frantically, leaving messes of shells everywhere! Which is also a sign of a rough winter ahead.
Pictures taken in September in the same day...
And to continue with natures signs of a rough winter! Its said that if the first week of August is unusually warm, then expect a rough winter ahead. So I went through some data of this past August and here's what I found.
The first week of august was running a good five to ten degrees above average! Could this mean a cold snowy winter? Or by the word "Rough" could it mean a mild November, Many temperature changes through out the season, Windy December, Overall a "Wet" winter, with around average snowfall for the season? Cause in my book that sounds pretty rough as well!

And last but not least, here is the look at the almanac's thoughts on this coming winter below.
You can see the almanac expecting us to be in that Average temperatures, Very white, Wet, category. Which I too feel we're in this category! However I feel it should look a bit more like this below!
With the Average Temperatures, and Very White, in the blue circle area.. And the Average Temperatures, and Wet, in the purple circle area. I think we'll have snows! However not like we seen last year!

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