Monday, February 18, 2013

50s today, Tracking a rain to snow system this evening. How much snow??

We have another system we are tracking moving in from the west. A system developing along a cold front will give way to some heavy rain at times before changing over to some snow showers by later tonight into early Tuesday. Take a look at this image out of the National Weather Service below.
Today's weather story is mild temperatures in the lower 50s with breezy conditions. Wind between 20 and 25 mph gusting to 28 near 30 mph at times. This warm front you see above is what brings these mild temperatures before more bitter cold takes over.
 
Right now models are having a little trouble tracking the rain to snow change over. The timing of the change over will determine how much snowfall we actually see. Right now we're looking for rainfall to start later this evening between 6:pm and 8:pm EST. Rainfall between .25" and .50" inches. Models indicate the snow change over to be later on tonight after midnight. In this case we could pick up around 0.1" to 0.2" inches.
I don't want to make this my snow forecast just yet. Nothing is set in stone, I'd like to have a few more model runs under my belt. The sooner we change over to snow the more we will see. I highly doubt that we would see anymore then 1.50" inches at the very most! however 0.2" inches is seeming like the safe bet for now and is what I'm leaning toward.
You can see that the Bufkit models are currently looking at a possible 0.2" inches as well. And Bufkit is usually pretty close when it comes to winter forecasting.
 
Here is a look at the developing system on national radar below. This image was taken at 11:53am EST.
I will have another quick update giving my final rainfall and snowfall forecast numbers later on tonight after more data comes in. So stay tuned and enjoy the 50s while they're here! Have a great day and as always God Bless.

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