Saturday, October 5, 2013

Scattered thundershowers across the area this afternoon / Sunday.

A few scattered thunderstorms / thundershowers will be moving through the area this afternoon / evening into the overnight hours and on into early Sunday. We're already seeing cloudy overcast skies across the Midwest as scattered thundershowers are popping up. You can see in this local radar image below taken at 1:21pm EDT.
Currently none of these cells are severe. We do have a slight risk of severe weather issued by the National weather service however I believe that most of these cells around our area will be isolated to moderate thunderstorms rather then severe. I'm looking at a 90% chance of rain however a 65% to 70% chance of actual thunderstorms. Our current Total totals index sets around 44 to 46 which indicates isolated thunderstorms possible rather then strong, as well as our Lifted Index (LI) that sets around 0 to -1 which also supports isolated thundershowers rather then strong storms this afternoon. Still I cannot rule out the minor chance of a stray strong storm in the area.

We're seeing these storms from along a cold front that will make its way through the area later this evening / into tonight. Here is a look at the current surface chart below.
As we head into the evening / overnight hours today we will see these scattered showers become more well formed and compact as they push through the area. More widespread rain across the state. Right now I'm looking for rainfall between .10" and .25" inches tonight with higher rainfall by the time we head into Sunday where we could pick up anywhere between .25" and .60" inches of rain.

Here is a sneak peak into how things should look later this evening around 8:pm EDT.
Scattered showers continue off and on into early Sunday, Here is a chart looking into Sunday morning around 8:am EDT below.
Expect showers Sunday in the morning hours, Mostly cloudy skies otherwise, showers should start to tapper off sometime between 12:pm and 2:pm EDT.

Expect a low tonight as the cold front moves through the area of around 58* degrees, A high Sunday nice and cool around 68* degrees with a low that night around 47* degrees. I'm still not seeing our first frost in the area as of now, However it's looking like we can expect one between the 11th and 20th.


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