Good news bloggers. I've gone through the latest data this afternoon.Right now the newest model data isn't showing me as strong of storms as first thought, Which is great news! I'm now expecting the more severe weather risk to be more south and west of our area. With more scattered isolated / moderate thunderstorms in our area,
You can see that the SPC also agrees with this forecast as they too have moved their severe weather threat area this afternoon.
We're seeing a current LI at -1.5 which is only a little unstable supporting rain and light thunder. We're looking for a Total Totals Index tonight around 45.6 which supports isolated / moderate thunderstorms. Not seeing very high Helicity values or CAPE values at this time. Still heavy rainfall will be a big topic tonight with rainfall between 1.00" inches and 1.50" inches. Locally higher amounts possible in storms!
You cans see we already have some scattered thunderstorms starting to pop up across the area. nothing strong or anything at this time. I'll be back to update as needed. Have a great day bloggers!