2012 - 2013 Winter Forecast.

Alright. I have been looking into the 2012 - 2013 winter forecast for the past few days. Finally I have some information for you guys. But before I start I just want to point out like I do every year that this winter forecast is not set in stone! When we say that we're making a winter forecast, lets be honest, none of us ever hit it on the nose. And this is because no one can predict a season ahead accurately. All we can do when trying to forecast the winter ahead is look at past and current weather trends, Nature, and some long range forecasting models that are more wrong than they are right. All we're doing is trying to see what we can and give you an idea as to what nature is pointing to as we head into the winter season. With that said, lets begin.

 

One of the first things most of us look at when deciding how the winter will be is El-nino and La-nina. Which jet stream pattern will it be this year?. Well, last winter we had a La-nina jet stream pattern that was so weak it acted like a El-nino. Causing us to see a much milder and less snowy winter. However this season many believe that we could see a weak El-nino as we continue to move closer to the chilly season. One of the other things to look at are the NAO and AO models. This also helps decide what kind of jet stream pattern we could see.

What you are looking at above is whats called a Positive NAO. When we see this kind of pattern we usually see that jet stream lift to the north a bit keeping that cooler air north of us for the most part and more average / mild air in place just to our south. If we were to see a pattern like this one it would mean less snow for us in the Midwest.

 

Below is how things would look with a Negative NAO.

We would see that jet stream dip south causing all that cold polar air to fall south into the area. This would mean more snow for the Midwest and even above average snowfall the more east and north you go! If we see this pattern snow lovers would be happy and the east would be digging out.

 

So what pattern do I think we're leaning toward? Well, currently its pretty hard to say. However most models are showing signs of an average winter for much of us in the Midwest. With the NAO models right around neutral (Between both Negative and Positive). This could be a back and forth kind of year.

 

So I've showed you some of the science side of things. Now if you want to take a more mother nature approach to the winter forecast then take a look at this.

 

Weather folklore says that you can predict the winter ahead by using persimmons.

It says that if you take a persimmon and cut into the seeds then you can tell what kind of winter you will have. Once you cut into the seed you will look to see what shape it has inside. In this image above you can see the shape of a spoon. They say this would mean lots of cold and snow in your forecast. Spoon = shovel! If you cut into a seed and see a fork that would mean an average to mild winter, rather calm for the most part. A knife would mean bitter cold temperatures and harsh winds that cut through you like a knife.

 

I did find some reports of some people who actually cut into the seeds this year. Take a look at what they found and you can be the judge.

 

East Central GA. All spoons.

 

Orange county IN. Ten seeds and all spoons.

 

Franklin IN. Twenty seeds and all spoons.

 

Mccreary county KY. Three seeds, two spoons and one knife.

 

Central KY. Three spoons and one knife.

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Here's what I'm leaning toward for the Midwest this winter season.

I think that most of us will see a more average winter this year. You can see in the light blue areas above. Which for snow lovers this isn't bad. Even our average winters here in Indiana, we usually see an annual snowfall of 26.2" inches.

 

Above average snowfall in areas east of Indiana, and Ohio. Cold and snowy north and around average / slightly milder weather south of Kentucky, and Missouri. I personally do think we will see a decent amount of storms develop in the Midwest this year. It'll be interesting to watch.

 

As for our first fall freeze of 32* degrees and 28* degrees for the 2012 year. Take a look at these charts below straight out of the national weather service.

Above is a look at our first fall freeze at 32* degrees. We are looking for it to be between October 1st and October 10th here in Tippecanoe, county.

 

And below is our first fall freeze of 28* degrees expected between October 11th and 20th to October 21st and 30th in the Tippecanoe, county area.

So that's just an idea of how things currently look for the 2012 - 2013 winter forecast. I'm sure new data will con in as we continue to inch closer to this winter and some tweaks will have to be made to this forecast. Until then have a great day bloggers and enjoy Autumn! ;)

 

Take care and God bless.

Developing Forecast For Wither 2012 - 2013

I have been doing a lot of model watching and looking at our past weather trends lately as I try to get ready for our 2012 - 2013 winter forecast. It's such an iffy thing to forecast.  However I like to look into it and give everyone a rough idea as to what we can expect. I have been looking into the El- nino, and La-nina. The NAO, and AO, models. I've been looking into the CPC and past weather trends, as well as long range GFS models. I have even been doing a lot of reading up on weather decisions regarding these weather models, etc.

 

So much to go over when trying to forecast a season ahead. So stay tuned. I will try to have a taste of what we can expect very soon.

Kicking Off Autumn The Right Way!

Well, yesterday was the perfect start to fall. Couldn't ask for a better day weather - wise or otherwise to kick off the Autumn season. We saw partly cloudy skies with cool crisp temperatures in the upper 50s all day. I recorded a low last night in the Lafayette, IN area of 46.4* degrees while the national weather service recorded a low last night from the Purdue airport of 35* degrees! Some patchy fog was reported in the areas that actually saw the temperature dip down into the 30s last night.

 

We headed out to Exploration Acres last night as my Autumn celebration, With a day as perfect as yesterday there was no way we could pass it up.

There were over 1000 people out at the maze last night, and as Halloween nears there will be even more! We enjoyed Hot cocoa, Elephant ears, and lots of jokes. It felt good to break out the hoodies lol.

http://www.explorationacres.com/

Though we will see 70s again as our highs for much of next week I do see some cooler weather moving back into the area during the first week of October. Some models indicating the 540 line trying to dip down into the Midwest sometime during the first week of October. This is giving me the itch to start looking into our winter forecast here in the Midwest. With the drought we had all summer, What could it mean for our winter? This is something I will most likely try to work on over the next few weeks and have a post up real soon.

 

In the meantime..

Some more light patchy fog could be possible again tonight into early Monday morning as dew points will be around 34* degrees with air temperatures at 36* degrees during the overnight. So be careful as you head out in the A.M.

 

Otherwise today is looking like another great day.

 

Today expect highs around 61* degrees with sunny skies through out the day. Low tonight around 36* degrees with light winds between 5 and 10 mph. Chance again tonight for some more light patchy fog in areas as dew points will be at 34* degrees and temperatures tonight at 36* degrees. We do have a Frost Advisory in effect from 2:am Monday through 9:am Monday morning EDT. A frost advisory means that frost is possible, And that any outdoor plants left uncovered could be killed. I personally don't think most of us will see frost tonight however to be on the safe side as temperatures look to fall into the middle 30s I would still cover or bring in your plants.

Monday is looking like a good day for the most part. Highs around 67* degrees with a low that night around 51* degrees. Partly cloudy skies through out the day with winds between 10 and 15 mph. Winds will start to pick up a little gusting to 20 - 22mph as we head into Monday night, Some light scattered showers are possible Monday night into early Tuesday.

First Day Of Autumn! Kicking It Off With Possible Frost In The Forecast.

It will officially be Autumn at 10:49am EDT. Heck yeah! :) And its really starting to feel like it. Believe it or not we are starting to see a few trees start to change colors around the Lafayette area. And we will be talking about some possible patchy frost in the area by as soon as tomorrow / tomorrow night. Yes get out those heavier jackets and grab a cup of hot coffee, Its about to set in.

 

Temperatures have been right around 65* and 70* degrees as our highs over the past few weeks, However today we will see a high around 59* / 60* degrees. With highs this week ranging between 60* and 70* degrees. Lows at night falling into the middle to lower 30s already. Our average high temperature for this time of year is around 76* degrees, Our average low is around 56* degrees, You can see how fast fall is coming and how below average we are going to be this week. We are already looking into the first actual freeze dates, The national weather service has already released the freeze charts for the Midwest. Take a look below.

This chart above is showing the likely dates for our first freeze at 32* degrees. We are currently expected between October 1st and 10th.

 

Below is the expected freeze dates at 28* degrees.

You can see we are expected between October 11th and 20th.

 

The reason we are seeing these cooler temperatures right now is because of this big dip in the jet stream. Allowing all that cooler polar air to fall into the Midwest.

This map is looking into Sunday at 8:am EDT. Cool temperatures as that jet stream dip is right over the Midwest, Highest expected temperature all week is forecast to be around 70* degrees, Still around 6* degrees below average for this time of year.

 

Now we could very well see some light patchy frost as we head into Sunday night / early Monday morning with temperatures falling into the lower 30s around 35* degrees. Light winds and a dew point around 38* degrees means some light patchy fog is also likely for both tonight and Sunday night. So we will keep a watchful eye on that as well.

 

Your forecast for today and Sunday.

 

Today expect a high around 59* degrees with winds between 10 and 15mph gusting to 20mph possible, Partly cloudy to sunny skies and a cool low tonight around 39* degrees.

 

Sunday a high around 61* degrees with a low that night of 35* degrees, Winds light between 5 and 10mph with sunny skies through out the day, Some early morning light patchy fog is possible. With some light patchy frost / fog later Sunday night into early Monday morning not out of the question.

 

Tonight will be a great night to head out to exploration acres with cool crisp temperatures. Its a great way to kick off the first day of Autumn! I will be out there with my Girlfriend, Sister, and Best Friend having a great time!

 

Take care bloggers, And God Bless.

Moon And Mars Visible Tonight!

CRESCENT MOON AND MARS UPDATE:

 

Looking for Mars? Tonight the Red Planet is easy to find less than 2^o from the crescent Moon. Look for the pair shining side-by-side in the western sky after sunset. With partly cloudy skies across the area tonight we should have a pretty good view! Here is a sky map below.

 

As we head into Autumn it has always been one of my favorite things to look up to the sky and see what I can find, Things like the different moon phases, such as the crescent moon and mars, The hunters moon etc. Along with the cool crisp air at night. Autumn equinox is this Saturday September 22nd, at 10:49am EDT.