Saturday, October 16, 2010

Current Thinking On The 2010 - 2011 Winter Forecast For Indiana.

Hey bloggers it's been a long time since I've posted on here. As most of you know things have been crazy and busy the past few months. I'm not gonna go into detail. The point is I'm back to blogging and I 'm going to start things off with a look into your 2010 - 2011 winter forecast.

A lot of People, Weather watchers, and Meteorologist, have been trying to forecast this winter and let me tell you everyone has something different this year! It's pretty much two sided. You have half of the forecasting world calling for an average / mild winter here in most of the Midwest. And the other half calling for cold and snowy weather for much of the Midwest. So wheres my forecast fall with these to sides? Well, kind of in the middle. But before we start breaking this outlook down lets start out with one of the main things that will effect this winter. (La-Nina).

Yes, La-Nina is back and will effect our winter this season. Take a look at this map below.As you can see this image was taken of the pacific on September 30th 2010. This is the latest image at this time. this is showing the cooler waters AKA La-Nina. See the colors of dark blue and purples? This indicates the cold waters of La-Nina. Now the last La-Nina we had was back in 2007 and it was a moderate La-Nina. Still we had the blizzard of 07. So how strong is this La-Nina currently? Well, at this time I'm seeing this as a weak La-Nina, But this could change as the season persists.

Now a lot of people talk about La-Nina and El-Nino but what are they really? And what is the difference? Well, I have a little something that may help you out! Take a look at this Map below.
Now what your looking at is the difference of both La-Nina and El-Nino. El-Nino which is in the top image you can see is a jet stream pattern as well as La-Nina. See that purple line? That purple line is the Polar jet stream. See how it stays well to the north of our area and much of the states? This allows us to see both warmer then average temperatures most of the time as well as below average precipitation. Usually when we have a El-Nino jet stream we sometimes see a drought here in the Midwest.

Now if you look at the image below you'll see that the purple line AKA Polar jet stream is much lower on the map and allows that cold air to push into the Midwest which as you probably guessed means average to below average temperatures along with average to above average precipitation depending on how strong both the El-Nino and La-Nina may be!

Now that we have that understood lol, Lets try and move on to what we can expect this winter. Now remember that this is just a rough look into the next few months. And nothing in Indiana can ever be set in stone. ;)One of the main things to try and figure out is the storm track for the 2010 - 2011 winter. As you can see above I have two projected storm tracks posted. We see our biggest snows when we see storms take one of these paths. Now the tricky part is that I have some models calling for storm track number one, And the other half calling for storm track number two. So I believe that the real storm track will fall somewhere between the two above! Obviously the closer to storm track number one the more snow we will see! :) And you know that's what I'm keeping hope for lol ;)

So here's the rest of the winter break down below.

La-Nina
Currently we are seeing a weak La-Nina which will keep us close to an average winter however I'm still expecting a few numbers to stray from that average. As in Snow accumulation, / Temperatures. With this La-Nina we will see the jet stream dip down keeping us cool once we really get into the winter season.
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Precipitation
Currently some of the models are showing us starting out slow with the snowfall. However I expect us to see more snow chances and bigger snows as we head into the middle / late December into January and February. January and February look to be our snowiest months at this time.
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Temperatures
Temperatures are looking like they will go back and forth. Yes, I'm thinking we will see equal days of both above and below average temperatures through out the winter. Much like we have seen through out this fall. Equal days of above and below.
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Well, that's the rough outlook as of now for the 2010 - 2011 winter ahead. I will continue to make changes as needed when more data comes in. As in if this La-Nina gets stronger which would change the whole forecast!

now one more thing I wanted to add. I have not only been forecasting this winter by weather models, But also by weather Lore. And there have been a lot of signs pointing to things. But I will let you decide for yourself. Here are some of the weather lore posted below. Try some out and please feel free to post what nature is doing in your area. Believe me this will REALLY HELP when it comes to forecasting the winter outlook. So Thanks ahead of time!

Take care bloggers. I'll check back soon.
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Winter Weather Lore and the Persimmon

Check the seed of a persimmon after a fall frost. Cut into the seed from the narrow side, and look at the kernel. See if you can recognize the shape of a spoon, fork, or knife.

clip_image008

If the kernel is shaped like a . . .

spoon, look for a harsh winter with heavy, wet snow.

fork, look for a mild winter with light, powdery snow.

knife, look for a cold, icy winter with cutting winds.

Cold Winter Weather

Weather lore suggests winter will be bad if:

- Animals have thicker coats of hair or fur.

- Squirrels build their nests low in trees and gather nuts early.

- Ants build their mounds high.

- Larger numbers of spiders are seen in the fall.

- A heavy crop of berries are found on holly and dogwood trees.

- Birds are seen migrating early or huddling on the ground.

- You hear lots of rolling thunder during late fall.

- Leaves shed before changing color.

- Chimney smoke flows toward the ground.

- The breastbone of a turkey cooked in the fall is purple or dark blue. (If it is white,

a mild winter is in store.)



How Weather Lore Predictions Affect the Coming Winter

- A late killing frost suggests winter will not be bad.

- Average corn husk thickness suggests winter will not be bad.

- Fewer spiders sightings in the fall suggests winter will not be bad.

Am I the only one who has seen spiders like crazy this fall???

- A poor berry crop on hollies suggests winter will not be bad.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good to see you back blogging, Justin!

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Wonderful info Justin! Agree with MA, Nice to see you back! I check every day :)


Teri

JIWB said...

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Yes Justin, I agree with MA and Teri, so nice to see you back! Been too long! Can certainly understand about things getting busy or crazy tho! Take care and welcome back! Hope all is well with you and your family.. :-) JLB

kateyb said...

What about the wooly caterpillar thing? I've seen two so far and their black bands were skimpy. What does that mean, folklore folk?

JIWB said...

Hey Kateyb.

The type of caterpillar to look for when trying to get an idea about the coming winter have ether Black or Brown colors. Like what you seem to have seen. The way to forecast with them is by looking at how wide the Black stripes or Brown stripes are. As in If it has a wide Black stripe at the top then that usually means a cold snowy start to the winter season. Then Brown in the middle would mean very few mild days. Followed by another wide Black band at the bottom all are signs of a cold snowy winter.

However if the caterpillar you was looking at is more Brown then Black, Then that is showing signs of a Mild winter.

Let me know if this helps!

In Indiana winters are just Crazy to forecast anymore lol :)

Justin.

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