Friday, December 10, 2010

The Annihilator Is A Tricky One For Sure!

Alright I have gone through the latest data and here's my current thinking on the Annihilator! ;)

Tomorrow we will start with a high of around 39* degrees which means this storm will start out as all rain. Temperatures will fall to around freezing as the day goes. Starting time for this is around Noon time. We will change over to a kind of rainy Mix as we head into the late afternoon / early evening hours. Before becoming all snow between 9:pm and 11:pm EST Saturday night. Our northern counties will become all snow first. (Closer to that 8:pm - 9:pm EST range). Right now I'm expecting between a quarter and a half inch of rainfall / mixed precipitation possible before we make the change over to all snow.

This snow will continue through out much if not all day Sunday. We may see a brief break in the snow late Saturday night into early Sunday morning however more snow will kick back up on the backside and continue on through the day. Winds will also be a huge problem Both Saturday night and Sunday! Take a look.

Yes, we can expect to see winds gusting to 35 mph maybe higher at times! This is what we can expect with as strong of a low pressure system as this one is! So what about the snow - cast? Well, here is my latest thinking on the snowfall below.The MOS models have started showing numbers slightly higher then what they were yesterday. Yesterday they only called for a Trace to 2" inches however today they are now showing me enough precipitation for the 2" to 4" Inch range! I believe this is because the timing for the change over to all snow has also changed! It wasn't expected to change over to all snow until after Midnight maybe even after 1:am as of two or three days ago. However now the change over is expected to be much sooner there for making snowfall numbers go up slightly! I had us yesterday in the 1" to 3" range near the 2" to 4" inch band. However as you can see I expect to see most of the WLFI viewing area picking up around that 2" to 4" inch range. With 3" to 6" + inches north of the viewing area.

This seems to be the best start for this forecast. There is soooo much to worry about when forecasting this snow storm! Timing, Quantity of precipitation, Temperatures, You name it! However one of the biggest things that could effect how much snowfall we see will in fact be the change over time from mixed to all snow. If it changes over in the time range posted above then we should see the 2" to 4" Inch rangeover most of the viewing area. If it changes over later then that would lower snowfall amounts. Just as if it would change over sooner then it would raise amounts. A very very tricky system for sure!

Now I know most of my data is calling for the 2" to 4" inch range however sometimes forecasting is about going with your gut! And for some reason I don't want to totally rule out the chance for some of us to see closer to four and a half inches possible! Call me crazy, however if the timing changes just a little bit then I still feel this is possible! So I have my range posted in the map above however I'm also going ahead and telling you my gut!

So that's how things look for now! Here's one last look at the main forecast focus points below.Sunday's temperatures will start around 23* degrees and will continue to fall from there. A low of 6* degrees Sunday night! Monday only highs in the LOW TEENS!! And Monday night maybe 0* degrees! (Without Wind Chill). So get ready because the people of MIN, are Nice and will share the cold!! ;)

I may check back with one last update in the morning.

God Bless.....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


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