Thursday, December 9, 2010

Update On The Annihilator!!

Oh my goodness where do I start?? There is so much going on in the weather - world this week it's not even funny. But what we came to talk about is the storm that people are calling the "Annihilator" lol. And that's because this winter storm could dump feet of snow with lots of wind near 30 + Mph!! But what about here?? Will it dump feet of snow here? Lets take a look.

Yesterday we talked about where the low pressure would set up and how that would effect how much snow we will see. And that still holds true. However the models are slowly starting to agree for a change! Take a look.This is a look at the GFS model for late Saturday into early Sunday. You can see the low pressure in this map. It's looking like it wants to set up almost right over head here in the WLFI viewing area. This means that the (biggest snowfall) would be well north of the WLFI viewing area. However we will still see some snow accumulation out of this. The question is "How much?". I'll get to that in just a minute!Above is a look at where the low pressure system is expected to be, come Sunday around 12-Zulu time. AKA 7:00am EST. What we are looking at in this image are the tightly packed isobars. This is indicating the high winds that will pick up come late Saturday night into Sunday. So whatever snow we do have on the ground or still falling for that matter will be blowing like crazy! We can expect to see drifting snow with this system that's for sure. but again how much snow could we see with this low pressure shifting more to the north?Above is a look at the first snow - cast for this system. I may have to tweak this map as we head into tomorrow evening before things get kicked off on Saturday! You can see I have the Lafayette, area right on the line of the 1" to 3" inch range and the 2" to 4" inch range With Heavier amounts north of Tippecanoe, county. Big Big Numbers will be well over 7" inches north of IL, and in areas of MI, as well. That could have been us had this low pressure stayed more to our south.

Here's the Saturday / Sunday forecast break down below.

We will start out with above freezing temperatures on Saturday around 39* / 40* degrees. We will be cloudy with the storm starting out as rain that afternoon. We will continue with a rainy / Mix, before changing over to all snow after midnight that night. From then on we can expect to see all snow into Sunday / through out much of Sunday. I look for the mixed precipitation of rain and snow to be around a tenth to a quarter inch possible on Saturday. Then we may pick up 1" to 3" Inches of snow between Late Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will pick up on Sunday gusting to near 30 mph not out of the question! We will also start to fall temperature - wise from Sunday into next week!! Get ready for more COLD!!!!!

Now as you can see below some models like the MOS model is calling for a Trace to 2" Inches of snow.This (1) on the image you see above at this time is telling me that when the rain changes over to snow we should have around 0.10" inches of precipitation to work with ((at least)). Which when we look at that number as snow it would be right around a Trace to 2" inches. The reason why I still have us on the line of both 1" to 3" inches and 2" to 4" Inches is because I have other models showing me slightly higher amounts then the MOS model above. Which the MOS model ran a little under what we seen with our last snow. That's why I feel my snow - cast map above is a good starting point. We still have around a day and a half to tweak the forecast if needed to.

So as you can see we have a lot going on! This is still a big storm whether we see the mix rainy snowy side or the big snowy side. The Annihilator, fits it! ;) Lots of precipitation and wind!

I'll be back to tweak this forecast once again so be sure to check back with JIWB for the latest!

Oh yeah... This weather will make for some GREAT football games this weekend as well! ;) Just had to put that in there lol. Check Back!

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