Thursday, December 20, 2012

Latest On Our First Snow Of The Season! Winter Storm Draco!

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THANK YOU!



We are in a winter weather advisory from 1:pm EST this afternoon until 10:am EST Friday.

* MAIN IMPACT: Travel may become very difficult with blowing and drifting snow, gusty winds, and slick icy roads.

* WINDS: Sustained winds of  25 - 35 mph at times with possible gusts to 40 - 45 mph.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1" to 3" Inches.

* TIMING: STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 1 PM TODAY AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO START
  UNTIL AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 10 AM
  FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES: Single digits.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
 
This storm has gone up in expected snowfall at this time. The timing is pretty much the same as yesterday's thinking. Right now we are in the dry slot before that second bit of rain moves in followed by our snow event. Take a look.
You see that wide area over central Indiana with nothing, no rain or snow? That's the dry slot. You can really understand it by looking at this satellite image below.
This is a look at our moisture. At this time we're pulling in a lot of that dry air from our southwest. This is what forms a dry slot and gives us a break before that second round (The back side of the storm moves in).
 
Like I said timing still seems to be spot on. I'm looking for that rain snow mix to be between 4:pm and 6:pm give or take a little. With accumulating snow starting after 7:pm and not ending until we head into Friday morning.
I did go ahead and up the expected snowfall amounts ever so slightly. New data point to another possible half inch in areas.
This bufkit model above is showing the Lafayette area with 1.4" to 1.9" inches when all is said and done. Yes, just under 2" inches. But with that said I also have MOS models showing snowfall anywhere between a trace to 2" inches. This is exactly why we forecast a range during the winter months and nothing is ever set in stone.
 
Here's my newest thinking on our snowfall totals.
I like .50" to 1" inch down around I-70 and south. 1" to 2.5" inches for much of us in central Indiana. Slightly higher amounts around Remington, in Newton, and Jasper, counties with a possible 1.5" to 3" inches. And a good 2" to 4" inches in northern Indiana where they will see much heavier snow bands set up.
 
With that said, make sure you have your snow measuring boards up and ready to go in a good non snow drifting area. With winds blowing between 35 and 40 mph getting an accurate snow measurement is going to be the real challenge! 1" to 3" inches of snow can drift much much deeper then that in winds of this magnitude.
 
So for tonight into Friday our main storm threats will be.
High gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph. Blowing and drifting snow. Slick and icy roads as lows will be in the 20s. And last but not least, wind chills will pose a threat! With winds this high and a expected low tonight of 28* degrees we will see wind chills in the single digits. Near 9* degrees!
 
Stay warm and safe bloggers. I have to work tonight but I'll check back soon.