Saturday, March 1, 2014

Afternoon Update!

Okay, bloggers I just went through the latest data and have a few changes! Even last night I was starting with lower snowfall amounts then what a lot of other meteorologist were, This is because I just didn't see anything that supported the 11" inches that so many were calling for. And this morning I still have yet to see anything in the data that screams 11" inches to me. In fact I have lowered our amounts just a bit more then yesterday. Lets get started.

Currently I'm looking for mostly cloudy skies today with snow showers moving in later this evening. As we head into tonight around 6:pm and 8:pm we will see the snow become more area wide. Take a look at this surface image looking into Sunday around 1:am EST.
Cold front pushes through  and the winter weather starts coming down hard. Lots of rain and freezing rain to the south of Indianapolis. We are looking more and more to stay all snow according to the latest data, However I won't completely rule out sole sleet trying to mix in at times!

Take a look at this map below. This too has changed from last night. We were much closer to that sleet / freezing rain line this time yesterday, now all snow is looking like the story.
You can see the ice line is now setting up farther south and west. This is great news for us as no one likes freezing rain! Way to dangerous! I'm not seeing any signs of freezing rain in any of my data right now. Both the Bufkit and MOS models give me comfort in this area.

So how much snow can we expect? Well I think that we have a good chance of picking up at least 4" inches from this system. (At least).
above is a chart showing us with around a 60% to 80% chance of picking up at least 4" inches. That % chance gets lower the more south you go of Indianapolis as they will see more sleet and possibly freezing rain at times.

Here's the weather break down below.

Tonight we will see snow showers moving into the area between 6ish / 8ish give or take a little. Snow will continue into the overnight with winds between 5 and 10 mph, gust to 15 mph. Low tonight around 13 degrees as the temperature will continue to fall today as that cold front passes through the area.

Sunday we will see snow showers continue in the morning hours waking up to a world of white. Snow showers will start to slow down / tapper off that afternoon however scattered snow showers will be likely through out the day. Expect a chilly high around 19* degrees with a low around 5* degrees! Brrrrrr. Winds between 10 and 15 mph.
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Here's what I'm thinking for snowfall as of now.
Between 4" and 7" inches for much of the viewing area. Slightly lower expectations north with 4" to 6" inches, and a small band with locally higher amounts closer to Indianapolis where that rain / snow change over will make for heavy snow! 5" to 8" inches.

I will have another post tonight continuing to fine tune this forecast. Have a great day bloggers. Stay Tuned!

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