Saturday, January 31, 2015

Winter Storm Linus!

Good morning bloggers! We have a pretty messy developing winter storm working it's way closer to our area. It's bringing some major snowfall amounts along with it as well as some gusty winds and much colder temps! Take a look at this system out to our southwest still brewing before it heads our way.
This system will start affecting Indiana later on this afternoon / evening sometime between 6:pm and 8:pm EST. The tricky thing about this system is our temperatures! depending on how warm we are when the system moves in will decide if we see an all snow event, or a mix of both rain and snow. Take a look at this NAM model image below.
Here you can see this system making it's way through the area. You can see all the deep greens and yellows. These are the heavier snow bands. If all snow it could be as much as 8" to 12" inches in some areas! however you can also see that bold reed line I drew on this map. This is the 540 line. This is basically what separates the below freezing and above freezing temperatures. See how close that 540 line is to the viewing area? This is why this system is SO TRICKY to forecast. If this line moves just a few SHORT miles north or south it will effect how much snowfall is seen across the area.  I guess I'm saying that on this system it is okay to cut the meteorologist some slack lol. This one isn't easy by any means.

with that said let me go ahead and show you all what some of the current model data is pointing too snow - wise. Below is a look at the Bufkit weather model.
This model is fairly good at pinpointing the timing and possible amounts. Right now you can see it has the snow starting somewhere between 6:pm and 8:pm tonight. Maybe a brief break before the heavier snow, Then picking back up again around 7:am EST Sunday.  we could see 1" to 3" inches of snowfall today alone, With the rest accumulating Sunday. so how much grand total? well, again with what the models are pointing to currently, I have drawn up a map. Take a look.
Right now I like the Lafayette, area in the 5" to 8" range. with that said I expect a wide range in who sees what (Snowfall amount - wise) in that 5" to 8" band. By that I mean, for an example Lafayette could see 8" while West Lafayette, may see closer to 5". Tippecanoe and surrounding counties are so close to the 540 line amounts will vary! Because as I said above if this 540 line shifts just a few short miles north or south it will greatly impact how much snow is seen.

I like the more northern counties to see the 8" to 10" and even isolated 8" to 12" in areas! They will stay all snow and see the biggest amounts no doubt!

Alright bloggers that's it for now. I will keep watching this snow storm and keep you posted. Keep checking back here and on the JIWB Facebook page for more updates!