This system is continuing to build to our southwest, It is inching closer to the Indiana, area as time goes on. Rain showers are already developing in parts of IL. I have gone through more data and currently it is looking like we will start out this event with a rain / snow mix likely. Starting somewhere between 6:pm and 8:pm EST give or take.
The Bufkit model above is showing us starting this event between 6:pm and 8:pm EST with that green bar. This would mean rain. Soon changing over to some snow with maybe 1" to 3" expected. We could see a brief break in the precipitation before the heavier bands move into the area. Bufkit showing this brief break somewhere between 1:am and 4:am EST Sunday give or take. Heavier bands with more steady snowfall move in early Sunday morning through out the day. Another 4" to 6" inches could be picked up!
The tricky thing with this system is still our temperatures and if we will see an all snow event or more of a mix. right now the latest model data is still pointing to the Lafayette, and north areas to see more off a snow event. You can see that in the Bufkit models above with almost all "Blue bars". You can also see this in this model below.
This precipitation type model above is also currently keeping us in more of an all snow event. This is good for snow lovers! However that 540 line we talked about in the last update is still SO SO close that pinpointing these snowfall amounts is dang near impossible. But everyone is doing their best.
above is a look at a surface map around 1:am EST Sunday. You can see that cold front trying to make it's way through the area. Also that rain snow line in the pink. That first round so to speak of snow will be starting to tapper off giving way to just a brief break before the rest moves in soon after.
Here is a look at the surface chart around 1:pm EST. You can see that freeze line still setting up closer to the Lafayette, area. Heavier snow band just north of that line with rain and snow mix to the south.
Here is a look at the current expected snowfall totals for the Lafayette, area and near by counties. I will continue to tweak these numbers as more data becomes available to me. Nothing is set in stone with this forecast.
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