Thursday, May 13, 2010

Confusing Data?!?! Could Be Good News For Us If It's Right!!

What we need to do now is just continue to watch the current data and the radars like crazy! We started out with a 40% to 60% chance of seeing thunderstorms according to the K-Index models. Now they are showing between a 20% and 40% chance of seeing thunderstorms for the WLFI viewing area! However the Lifted Index has fallen to -2.5 which is slightly unstable. And also the SWEAT models earlier this morning was at 305 and have now gone up to 392 which is also indicating a better chance for severe thunderstorms!

So with this confusing data here is my thinking!

If we don't go any lower on Lifted Index then -2.whatever then we should be ok meaning that we won't see a huge ((outbreak)) of storms over our area! However with SWEAT, showing us a good chance at severe weather as well as the Total Totals Index showing Scattered Heavy thunderstorms then this is what I say.

(If we do) see any thunderstorms move through our area we have a good chance that we will see some severe thunderstorm warnings come along with them. But as for now the storms seem to be developing to our south and east which is what the models have been showing all day. This is where I have my "Zone cast" I posted in my last update which is good news for us!!)

For right now we have a 20% to 40% chance for thunderstorms to move through our area instead of that 40% to 60% chance we had earlier this morning! So this means we have a slight chance at thunderstorms but if we do see any there is a good chance they could be severe!

Still stay tuned! I'll check back again as needed!

Things are confusing at this point and time so don't let your guard down just yet! Still looking for rain starting later on this evening after 7:pm or 8:pm. Give or take.

4 comments:

Justin said...

Once the Cold front gets closer around 7:pm and 8:pm that's when we will see our 20% to 40% chance for thunderstorms try to develop.

However I still look for the strongest storms to form in that Storm zone found in my last post.

I'll check back soon....

Anonymous said...

Thanks Justin. We have a grandson playing in a golf match tonight. Sounds like it could be interesting! Take care! JLB

Brow said...

Awesome update dude! I forgot how much I enjoyed reading your stuff. :)

Anonymous said...

Thanks so much for the update Justin!

Teri