Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Warmer Air Is Riding Over The Top Of Our Cold Air!

Good morning bloggers. Well, I have gone through a little more data and I still like my last forecast set up at this time! (See Last Post)

At this time I still believe that we will see a lot of Sleet and even some Freezing rain especially in our southern viewing area counties! But what's causing the Sleet and freezing rain?? Well, I have put together a few maps to help show you what's going on with this system.

We are seeing a strong low pressure system with COLD polar air to our east and southeast. Also slightly warmer air near the 30s to our west and southwest. This low pressure system is pulling in the warmer air over the top of the cold air we are seeing at the surface! Such as our current temperature of 19* degrees.

Now this means: All precipitation starts out falling as snow way up high! The precipitation come through a layer of above freezing temperatures melting it into rain drops. Which then as it enters our lower level of cold below freezing temperatures freezes up into little sleet pellets! That's what we have been seeing all last night and that's what I believe we will see again this afternoon before changing over to all snow later on.Above is another chart that helps show how this happens with the Low pressure I was talking about.Here's what the radar looked like at 10:09am EST this morning. You can see the freeze line pretty clear setting up just south of Lafayette. This means for a good time we will be in a snow sleet mix. With Ice and Sleet just to our south! A slight shift North or south would change this. You can see all the warmer air just to our west and southwest. This is why the HEAVY snow will be north of Lafayette. Again if you want snow amounts and ice / sleet amounts just check out my last update. I'm still going with that forecast.

I'll check back again as needed bloggers. Stay safe.

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