Sunday, April 10, 2011

Squall Line OF Storms Late Tonight! Watching The Development To Our West!

Yes, bloggers storms are on the way tonight. A developing squall line of storms will try and move into the area tonight after 1:am or 2:am EDT. You can see the developing squall line of storms well to our west in this radar image below.
(Radar Image Taken At 6:14pm EDT)

We hit a high in Lafayette, today of 85.3* degrees!!! We have an average high this time of year of 61* degrees. We passed the old record high set this very day back in 1977 of 83* degrees! WOW. Well, this has caused us to become unstable through out the day. Take a look at our current Lifted Index in this map below.

(Click to enlarge).
You can see our current lifted index (LI) is between -6 and -7. Anything lower then -4 is really unstable! And we're currently around -6. So we will be watching things closely. Tonight the squall line will move in after 1:am or 2:am EDT. The good thing about that is we will have some time to cool off and maybe try to stable just a bit before the storms arrive as we lose that daytime heating.

With CAPE values around 2,500J/kg we can expect some hail inside the storms. Also dangerous frequent lightning is always a threat! However one of the main threats tonight will be the high winds! Steady winds between 20 - 28 mph gusting (Outside) of storms between 35 and 40 mph. (Inside of storms) could be 60+ mph! So damaging winds I believe are our main threat! You can see the National weather service agrees below.
Also I cannot totally rule out the chance of an isolated tornado somewhere in the viewing area. However I still believe that the greatest threat area for tornadoes will be north and west of our northern counties. Still we will be watching this closely! Here is a look at your tornado threat map below.
As you can see even the national weather service agrees that the main threat area for tornadoes is to our northwest however I still can't rule out an isolated one in the viewing area just yet with EHI values as high as models expect them to be. Currently our EHI values are not that unstable which is good news! However I will continue to watch the current data as the night goes on for any changes!

So I believe our main threats tonight will be:

Frequent Lightning.

A Few hailers.

High Gusty Winds (Outside) Of T-Storms... Damaging Wind (Inside) Of T-Storms.

An Isolated Tornado cannot Be Totally Ruled Out. (((Still expecting the main tornado threat to be to our northwest at this time)))

That's it for now bloggers. I'll keep watching our current data over the next few hours and I will keep checking back with in storms updates the best I can. Stay safe and Happy Tracking! ;)

God Bless!


Anonymous said...

Thank you Justin! Just to familiar with the weather back April 1994 when we had an ef4 tornado!

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