Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Latest on the developing thunderstorms Thursday!

Alright bloggers, I have been going through the latest weather data this evening and the new forecast for tonight / tomorrow is in. Let's get started.

As we head into tonight we will continue to see clouds move into the area as rain showers move closer during the overnight hours. As we move closer to 4:am ish we will see those showers starting in the western parts of the state. You can see in this radar image below how the system is already starting to develop.
We will see this warm front pass over the area giving way to a high tomorrow (Thursday) of 61* degrees! Because of this quick warm up with so much cold air following we will see a squall line of storms develop out in from of the cold front.
Good news for us is that I don't see the squall line actually developing until the cold front is at least half way through Indiana. Which means any severe weather would be south and east of our area. Take a look at this map below.
The national weather service is still keeping parts on Indiana in that severe weather risk area however as you can see they too believe it will be farther south and east of our area. I added the red line to this map to help show you where I'm currently thinking the main severe weather will develop.

Right now our main threats look to be:

 High winds gusting to 40 maybe even 40 + mph.

Heavy rainfall at times.

Flash Flooding do to warm temperatures and fast melting snow.

Isolated thunderstorms.
Cold air will blast back into the area late Thursday night into Wednesday as that cold front passes through the area. This is also when the winds will be at their highest! Let's break everything down now.

Tonight expect a low around 34* degrees with winds between 15 and 20 mph. cloudy skies as rain moves in later tonight into Thursday.

Thursday we can expect a high around 61* degrees with a low Thursday night falling fast to 28* degrees. Rainy conditions starting early Thursday morning and going off and on through out the day. Scattered thunderstorms possible with high winds and heavy rain at times. Currently looking for rainfall between .50" and .75" inches with isolated 1" inch in areas. Anything severe is looking to stay more south and east of the viewing area at this time. Main threats will be Heavy rainfall at times giving way to flash flooding, Isolated thunderstorms and high winds!

Winds will be between 15 and 20 mph gusting to 35 and 40 mph!
That's the latest for now bloggers. Stay safe and I'll check back soon. I'll be at work all day tomorrow. If I find time I will try to post a quick update. Have a great night!


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