Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Warm weather but not without a price!

Warm air is moving into the area over the next few days bloggers. However it doesn't come without a price! We will also be looking at a big melt down across the state causing flooding in areas as well as rain in the forecast on Thursday along with high gusty winds that could gust to 35 and 40 mph at times! Let's break things down.

First off we will look at Wednesday's forecast. It's looking nice! I'm expecting a high around 43* degrees with mostly clear skies across the area. Light winds between 5 and 10 mph with a low that night around 34* degrees. Late that night however is when we will see some rain showers start to move into the area into Thursday.
Above you can see this weather model looking into early Thursday morning. You can see the rain showers starting to move into the area around 6:am / 7:am EST Thursday. Heavy rainfall at times along with a few thunderstorms are possible. The rain becomes more area wide as we continue through Thursday afternoon and evening.
Above is looking into late Thursday. You can see this system starting to make it's way off to the east of Indiana. You can see how the precipitation is forming into a squall line. This is where I expect stronger storms to try and develop. High winds form on the back side of this system where you see all those tightly packed isobars. Winds Thursday will be between 20 and 25 mph gusting to 35 and 40 mph by that evening / night. We are in a slight risk for severe weather according to the NWS, however as I said above I feel that any severe weather to develop is going to be related to that squall line which currently looks like it will form just east of us. Still we will keep a close eye on this as new information come in. Anytime you have cool air in place followed by a quick warm up and another strong cold front on the back side, its something to watch! Nothing is set in stone.
You can see even in this severe weather risk map out of the NWS they even have it mostly for southern states and more east of Indiana.

Once this system pushes through the state and that strong low pressure and cold front passes we will be in for another cold windy blast.
Just look how tightly packed together those isobars are! Very windy as we head into Thursday night / early Friday. Cold air on the back side of this system with highs on Friday in the upper 30s/ low 40s and falling. A low Friday night in the 20s again with highs over the weekend in the middle 30s.

Main threats from this system for us will be,

High Winds of 40mph.

Warm temperatures melting snow in edition to rainfall.

Flooding do to rain and warm temperatures melting several inches of snow.

We will be watching the local rivers over the next few days for sure! Right now the national weather service is expecting the Wabash river to crest this weekend at 10.9ft, Minor flood stage is at 11ft. This is dangerous if you live by the rivers. Be ready to take action!
So warm weather but not without a price! Stay safe bloggers. I will try to check back again soon. Have a good night!

God Bless.


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