Latest Update!

Okay bloggers here's the news! I have seen a huge number of high wind reports from this storm in both MO, and IL. Most of the reports in MO, inside the storms came in between 58 and 68 mph. However I just received a report from Monroe, IL, of 78mph!! That's stronger then an EF0 tornado!! That fall in the EF1 tornado range!! WOW! This is just crazy!!

These storms are still packing severe thunderstorm warnings like crazy as they move in. Good news for us is that most of the severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings are south of the WLFI viewing area. Still I would not be surprised to see a few issued for our area as it moves closer. Good news is I have yet to see any tornadoes reported!! Good sign! I still think that the SPC 10% chance of tornadoes is still a little to high for our area at this time.

Main storm threats.

Damaging winds! Wind damage has been reported everywhere!! Steady winds of at least 40 mph outside of storms! Over 60mph inside storms.

Small hail is also possible! Between .25" and .50" inches.

Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm.

And even though it's still a lower threat I cannot rule out the chance for an isolated tornado somewhere in the area.
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Timing for the storms is looking sometime around 8:am EDT.

I'll check back as needed.

Tornado Watch Is In Effect.

TORNADO WATCH 720 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON, BOONE, CARROLL, CASS, CLINTON, FOUNTAIN, JASPER, MONTGOMERY, NEWTON, PULASKI, TIPPECANOE, TIPTON, VERMILLION, WARREN, WHITE

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HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. This is for all of the WLFI viewing area.

Right now all we can do is continue to watch this line of storms as it continues to develop and move closer to our area

This is a very fast moving squall line of storms and it has already been packed with severe thunderstorm warnings and even some tornado warnings and it's only 5:00am in the morning. This storm isn't going to stop anytime soon ether! It is being fueled with lots of moisture being pulled into.This map above is your moisture map. You can see all the moisture this strong squall line has to work with! Scary. This squall line has already have many many high wind damage reports in MO. Winds being reported have been any ware between 58mph to 68mph!! Luckily no tornadoes have been reported at this time.

The SPC has put a high risk for severe weather into effect which is set up just to the east of the WLFI viewing area. Still we are looking at a possible 10% chance at tornadoes! Over a 60% chance for damaging winds!! This storms are packing steady winds over 60mph!! Along with hail a half inch in size! This is going to be a long bumpy day bloggers! I'll be right here as long as the power lets me! With the way today's weather is looking wind - wise be ready for anything!!

I'll check back.

Updated At 5:14AM EDT.

The Final Break Down Before The Storm!

Well, after going through the latest weather data it looks like a few things have changed! For better or worse? Well, not really for the better. Here's what we have to expect tomorrow weather - wise.

First off you see we have changed to a Wind Advisory at this time. This advisory is for the whole WLFI viewing area. Almost all of Indiana. This is in effect from 8:am to 8:pm EDT Tuesday.

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Tuesday aka Tomorrow, I'm expecting to see the rain / thunderstorms start in between 7:00AM and 8:00am EDT. We can expect Rain and thunderstorms through out much of the day do to this strong low pressure system and a strong cold front that will push through the area. This strong cold front will allow for a strong squall line of rain and thunderstorms to develop across the area as seen in this forecast radar image below.

This is when we will be watching the radar closely!! Right now Lafayette, is right on the line of the slight risk and moderate risk for severe weather come tomorrow. The moderate risk for severe weather has been put into effect do to all the strong winds that will come with this strong cold front. With winds this high they alone can be very dangerous! Sometimes straight line winds can be just as bad as a small tornado! If you can stay home tomorrow then I would do so. Winds like this can take out power and take down small limbs. We are talking winds between 25 and 30 mph gusting between 35 and 45 mph some could gust higher in wide open areas.

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Still the weather models are showing EHI around 1 and 2 which is what you usually need to see basic thunderstorms. CAPE values are still low which is good. And helicity is still around 350 to 400. Which is right on the line of basic to severe thunderstorms. This along with the high damaging winds is what the main severe weather threat is all about. With this being said I still will not rule out the chance for a stray strong storm or two along this squall line at this time.

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Now rain - wise we can expect to see rainfall between .25" and .50" inches with locally higher amounts in areas near .75". So here's the weather break down below.

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Rain / thunderstorms start around 7:am or 8:am EDT.

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Rainfall between .25" - .50" inches with locally higher amounts in areas.

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Winds will be between 25 - 30 mph gusting between 35 - 45 mph.

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Main Storm Threat.

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High gusty damaging winds is NUMBER #1!! Straight line winds can be just as dangerous as a small tornado.

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A stray strong storm along the squall line cannot be ruled out.

Lightning is a threat with thunderstorms.

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These winds will continue into Wednesday as we will see them between 25 and 30 mph. A gusty few days that for sure!

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Now the only way I will not be updating through the storms is if power happens to go out. Just going ahead and giving you all that heads up! Until tomorrow lets all get some rest and be up and ready to track first thing in the morning! ;) We have done the forecast so now all we can do is wait and then track the real deal.

Oh, and if any of you get pictures feel free to send them in at storm18mini@aol.com and I'll see what I can do. Thanks!

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See you then!

Wet, Windy, Stormy, Weather Is On The Way.

Well, bloggers we have some fun weather to track on the way by as soon as tonight! But first off lets start by looking at the High Wind Watch that has been put into effect for the WHOLE WLFI viewing area! Take a look below.
Yes I'm expecting to see winds through out Tuesday between 25 and 30 mph gusting as high as 45 mph possible! This high wind watch will be in effect from now through Tuesday afternoon.

A High wind watch means...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

IMPACTS: HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG
WINDS AND EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS
THAT MAY BE EASILY BE BLOWN ABOUT SHOULD BE SECURED.

This is no joke! winds will be blowing like crazy Tuesday. If you can stay off busy highways then do so! Winds like this can push your car all over the road. But wind won't be the only thing going on tomorrow!That's right rain and thunderstorms as well. Just look at this precipitation model above. This is a STRONG low pressure system that will impact many states Tuesday. Some areas will see training rain / thunderstorms tomorrow. Some areas severe thunderstorms will be possible. Now the storm predication center has us in the slight risk for severe weather at this time and yes, I do see the chance for some stray strong storms to move through parts of the WLFI viewing area. However I think the the best chance for more wide spread severe weather would be in the KY, and TN, areas at this time.

Now CAPE values are not that high along with the EHI models only pointing to basic thunderstorms for our area. However the Helicity values are HIGH! Our area or should I say the WLFI viewing area is looking at Helicity values between 350 and 400. What's this mean? Well 400 to 500 is usually needed to produce severe thunderstorms. We are really close! So a stray strong storm or two cannot be ruled out just yet! Now the more south you go the higher the Helicity values get! In areas like KY, and TN, the helicity values are between 450 and 600!! Which is why I made that area the better area to see more wide spread severe weather as seen below.But again that doesn't mean we're out of the woods. We will just have to keep a close eye on the radars and watch this thing as it moves in.

Now also in the Tuesday evening prog chart above you can see the nice cold front! This will cool us off into the 50s as our highs come Wednesday! Fall is here!

So tonight... We can expect to see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will slowly start to pick up as the night persists. Lows will be in the middle 50s.

Tuesday... We will see winds picking up to 25 and 30 mph gusting between 40 and 45 mph possible. Highs will be in the upper 60s around 67* degrees. Rainy / Windy, along with some scattered thunderstorms. A stray strong storm or two cannot be ruled out just yet! Rainfall currently expected to be between .25" and .50" inches with locally higher amounts in areas possible. Expect brief "HEAVY" downpours at times! Lows will be in the low 60s to upper 50s.

Stay tuned! I have a lot of work I need to get done today but I will be back tonight with any details that may have changed!

Be sure to check back.

Developing Week Ahead Forecast.

Hey bloggers. Did you all enjoy your weekend? It sure was a busy one but packed with fun! Did anyone make it out to exploration acres? If not there is one more weekend left! Halloween is the last day or should I say night.

I will be back with your week ahead forecast later on tonight.

However for today you can expect temperatures in the middle 70s with some scattered hit and miss rain showers not out of the question! Rainfall would be less then a quarter inch. But I will have more on your forecast for the week ahead coming up later on. It holds cooler fall like temperatures, And more rain chances! What will Halloween be like weather - wise? I will let you know!